United Parks & Resorts (United Parks & Resorts) Predictability Rank

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What is United Parks & Resorts Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

United Parks & Resorts Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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United Parks & Resorts (United Parks & Resorts) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Travel & Leisure » United Parks & Resorts Inc (NYSE:PRKS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

6240 Sea Harbor Drive, Orlando, FL, USA, 32821

Website

http://www.seaworldentertainment.com

SeaWorld Entertainment Inc operates in the United States leisure industry. Its core business is the operation of theme parks and such entertainment facilities involving sea animals across the country under prominent brands such as SeaWorld, Sea Rescue, and Busch Gardens. Seaworld also operates a reservations-only attraction offering interaction with marine animals known as Discovery Cove and a seasonal park under the name Sesame Place. The company generates most of its revenue from selling admission to the theme parks.

Executives

Kyle Robert Miller	officer: See Remarks	6240 SEA HARBOR DRIVE, ORLANDO FL 32821
Shekufeh Boyle	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	6240 SEA HARBOR DRIVE, ORLANDO FL 32821
Swanson Marc	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O SEAWORLD ENTERTAINMENT, INC., 6240 SEA HARBOR DR, ORLANDO FL 32821
George Anthony Taylor	officer: See Remarks	C/O SEAWORLD ENTERTAINMENT, INC., 9205 SOUTH PARK CENTER LOOP, SUITE 400, ORLANDO FL 32819
William Gray	director	355 MAPLE AVENUE, HARLEYSVILLE PA 19438
Byron Surrett	officer: See Remarks	6240 SEA HARBOR DRIVE, ORLANDO FL 32821
Christopher Dold	officer: Chief Zoological Officer	C/O SEAWORLD ENTERTAINMENT, INC., 9205 SOUTH PARK CENTER LOOP, SUITE 400, ORLANDO FL 32819
Forrester James W Jr	officer: See Remarks	6240 SEA HARBOR DRIVE, ORLANDO FL 32821
Christopher L. Finazzo	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	C/O SEAWORLD ENTERTAINMENT, INC., 6240 SEA HARBOR DR, ORLANDO FL 32821
Michelle F Adams	officer: See Remarks	6240 SEA HARBOR DRIVE, ORLANDO FL 32821
James Clark Hughes	officer: Chief Human Resources Officer	6240 SEA HARBOR DRIVE, ORLANDO FL 32821
Daniel C Mayer	officer: See Remarks	6240 SEA HARBOR DRIVE, ORLANDO FL 32821
Timothy Hartnett	director	6240 SEA HARBOR DRIVE, ORLANDO FL 32821
Elizabeth Gulacsy	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O SEAWORLD ENTERTAINMENT, INC., 9205 SOUTH PARK CENTER LOOP, SUITE 400, ORLANDO FL 32819
Sharon P Nadeau	officer: Chief Human Resources Officer	6240 SEA HARBOR DR, ORLANDO FL 32821