Pixelworks (Pixelworks) Predictability Rank

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What is Pixelworks Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Pixelworks Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Pixelworks Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Pixelworks (Pixelworks) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Semiconductors » Pixelworks Inc (NAS:PXLW) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

PXLX:Germany

Address

16760 Upper Boones Ferry Road, Suite 101, Portland, OR, USA, 97224

Website

https://www.pixelworks.com

Pixelworks Inc is a provider of visual processing semiconductor and software solutions that enable consistently high-quality and authentic viewing experiences in a wide variety of applications. The company defines its key target markets as Mobile (smartphone and tablet), Home and Enterprise (projectors, personal video recorders (PVR), and over-the-air (OTA) streaming devices), and Cinema (creation, remastering, and delivery of digital video content). The company operates in one segment: the design, development, marketing and sale of IC solutions for use in electronic display devices. The company generates its revenue from two broad product markets: the Mobile market and the Home and Enterprise market. The majority of the revenue is earned in Japan.

Executives

Haley F Green	officer: Chief Financial Officer	16760 SW UPPER BOONES FERRY RD., SUITE 101, PORTLAND OR 97224
Todd Debonis	officer: Chief Operating Officer	47211 LAKEVIEW BLVD, FREMONT CA 94538
Daniel Heneghan	director
John Y. Liu	director	16760 SW UPPER BOONES FERRY RD., SUITE 101, PORTLAND OR 97224
Dean Warren Butler	director	C/O SYNAPTICS INCORPORATED, 1251 MCKAY DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95131
Elias Nader	officer: VP and Chief Financial Officer	1778 MCCARTHY BLVD., C/O SIGMA DESIGNS, INC., MILPITAS CA 95035
C Scott Gibson	director	PMB 316, PO BOX 30,000, JACKSON WY 83002
David J. Tupman	director	1028 CHURCH ST., SAN FRANCISCO CA 94114
Amy L Bunszel	director	226 AIRPORT PARKWAY, SUITE 595, SAN JOSE CA 95110
Richard L Sanquini	director	14087 LOMA RIO DR, SARATOGA CA 95070
Steven L Moore	officer: VP Finance, CFO & Treasurer
Stephen L Domenik	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O SEVIN ROSEN FUNDS, 13455 NOEL RD #1670, DALLAS TX 75240
Bruce A Walicek	director	8100 SW NYBERG ROAD, TUALATIN OR 97062
Northern Right Capital Management, L.p.	other: Member of a 13(d) 10% Group	9 OLD KINGS HWY. S., 4TH FLOOR, DARIEN CT 06820
Bradley J. Shisler	other: See Remarks	7400 49TH AVENUE NORTH, NEW HOPE MN 55428