Pzena Investment Management (Pzena Investment Management) Predictability Rank

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What is Pzena Investment Management Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Pzena Investment Management Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Pzena Investment Management (Pzena Investment Management) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Pzena Investment Management Inc (NYSE:PZN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

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Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

320 Park Avenue, 8th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10022

Website

https://www.pzena.com

Pzena Investment Management Inc is a United States (U.S) based investment management company. The company adopts value-oriented investment strategies across a wide range of market capitalizations in both U.S. and non-U.S. capital markets. It manages separate accounts on behalf of institutions; acts as the sub-investment adviser for a variety of Securities and Exchange Commission registered mutual funds and non-U.S. funds, and act as investment adviser for the Pzena Mutual Funds as well as certain private placement funds. In addition, the company offers institutional investment products to public and corporate pension funds, endowments, foundations, and certain commingled vehicles geared toward institutional investors. The primary source of the revenue is management fees received.

Executives

Shavar Dakel Jeffries	director	50 HALSEY STREET, APT. 708T, NEWARK NJ 07102
Chenyu Caroline Cai	director, officer: Executive Vice President	320 PARK AVENUE, 8TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Joel Greenblatt	director	535 MADISON AVENUE, 30TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Steven M Galbraith	director	C/O PZENA INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LLC, 120 WEST 45TH STREET, 20TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
Richard P. Meyerowich	director	C/O PZENA INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LLC, 120 WEST 45TH STREET, 20TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
Evan K. Fire	officer: Chief Operating Officer	PZENA INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, INC., 320 PARK AVENUE, 8TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
John Paul Goetz	director, officer: President and Co-CIO	C/O PZENA INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LLC, 120 WEST 45TH STREET, 20TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
Richard Stanton Pzena	director, officer: Chairman, CEO and Co-CIO	C/O PZENA INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LLC, 120 WEST 45TH STREET, 20TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
William Louis Lipsey	director, officer: Pres., Marketing/Client Serv.	C/O PZENA INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LLC, 320 PARK AVENUE, 8TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Jessica R Doran	officer: Chief Financial Officer	320 PARK AVENUE, 8TH FLOOR, C/O PZENA INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, LLC, NEW YORK NY 10022
Punch Howard D. Jr	10 percent owner	7701 FRANCE AVE. SOUTH, SUITE 300, EDINA MN 55435
Punch & Associates Investment Management, Inc.	10 percent owner	7701 FRANCE AVE. SOUTH, SUITE 300, EDINA MN 55435
Charles D Johnston	director	C/O MORGAN STANLEY, 1585 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10036
Gary J Bachman	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O PZENA INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, 120 WEST 45TH STREET, 20TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
Michael D Peterson	officer: Executive Vice President	C/O PZENA INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, 120 WEST 45TH STREET, 20TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036