Quantum-Si (Quantum-Si) Predictability Rank

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What is Quantum-Si Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Quantum-Si Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Quantum-Si (Quantum-Si) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Quantum-Si Inc (NAS:QSI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

530 Old Whitfield Street, Guilford, CT, USA

Website

https://www.quantum-si.com

Quantum-Si Inc is focused on revolutionizing the growing field of proteomics. The company's suite of technologies is powered by a first-of-its-kind semiconductor chip designed to enable single-molecule next-generation protein sequencing and genomics, and digitize proteomic research in order to advance drug discovery and diagnostics beyond DNA sequencing.

Executives

Amir Jafri	director	C/O QUANTUM-SI INCORPORATED, 29 BUSINESS PARK DR., BRANFORD CT 06405
John P. Kenny	director	3471 RIVER HILLS DRIVE, CINCINNATI OH 45244
Jeffry R. Keyes	officer: Chief Financial Officer	13950 STOWE DRIVE, POWAY CA 92064-8803
Scott Mendel	director	5964 LA PLACE COURT, ADDRESS 2, CARLSBAD CA 92008
Christian Lapointe	officer: General Counsel & Corp. Secr.	C/O QUANTUM-SI INCORPORATED, 530 OLD WHITFIELD STREET, GUILFORD CT 06437
Grace Johnston	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	C/O QUANTUM-SI INCORPORATED, 530 OLD WHITFIELD STREET, GUILFORD CT 06437
Kevin Rakin	director, officer: Chairman and CEO	36 CHURCH LANE, WESTPORT CT 06880
Jeffrey Alan Hawkins	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	5964 LA PLACE COURT, CARLSBAD CA 92008
Vikram Bajaj	director	600 MONTGOMERY STREET, SUITE 4500, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Jonathan M Rothberg	director, 10 percent owner	C/O BUTTERFLY NETWORK, INC., 530 OLD WHITFIELD ST., GUILFORD CT 06437
Matthew Dyer	officer: Chief Business Officer	C/O QUANTUM-SI INCORPORATED, 530 OLD WHITFIELD STREET, GUILFORD CT 06437
Michael P Mckenna	officer: President and COO	C/O CURAGEN CORP, 555 LONG WHARF DR. 11TH FL., NEW HAVEN CT 06511
Patrick Schneider	officer: President and COO	C/O QUANTUM-SI INCORPORATED, 530 OLD WHITFIELD STREET, GUILFORD CT 06437
John Viii Stark	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O QUANTUM-SI INCORPORATED, 530 OLD WHITFIELD STREET, GUILFORD CT 06437
2012 Jmr Trust Common Llc	10 percent owner	C/O QUANTUM-SI INCORPORATED, 530 OLD WHITFIELD STREET, GUILFORD CT 06437