Quad/Graphics (Quad/Graphics) Predictability Rank

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What is Quad/Graphics Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Quad/Graphics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Quad/Graphics Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Quad/Graphics (Quad/Graphics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Business Services » Quad/Graphics Inc (NYSE:QUAD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

QGU:Germany QGU:Germany

Address

N61 W23044 Harry's Way, Sussex, WI, USA, 53089-3995

Website

https://www.quad.com

Quad/Graphics Inc provides print and marketing services to help customers market their products, services, and contents. The company primarily operates in the commercial segment of the printing industry. It operates through three divisions. The United States print and related services segment consists of the company's American operations. Besides the complete set of print and marketing solutions, this segment also manufactures ink. The international segment includes the company's printing business in Europe and Latin America. The corporate segment is engaged in the general and administrative activities as well as associated costs. The company almost generates all its revenue from the American domestic market.

Executives

Melanie Arlene Huet	director	6655 PEACHTREE DUNWOODY ROAD, ATLANTA GA 30328
Robert H Quadracci	officer: Chief Human Resources Officer	C/O QUAD/GRAPHICS INC., N61 W23044 HARRY'S WAY, SUSSEX WI 53089
Anthony Staniak	officer: Chief Financial Officer	QUAD/GRAPHICS, INC., N61 W23044 HARRY'S WAY, SUSSEX WI 53089-3995
Beth-ann Eason	director	C/O QUAD/GRAPHICS INC., N61 W23044 HARRY'S WAY, SUSSEX WI 53089
Dana B. Gruen	officer: General Counsel & Corp Sec	C/O QUAD/GRAPHICS INC., N61 W23044 HARRY'S WAY, SUSSEX WI 53089
Donald M Mckenna	officer: EVP, Chief Administrative ofcr	C/O QUAD/GRAPHICS, INC., N61 W23044 HARRY'S WAY, SUSSEX WI 53089
Joshua J Golden	officer: Chief Marketing Officer	C/O QUAD/GRAPHICS, INC., N61 W23044 HARRY'S WAY, SUSSEX WI 53089
J Joel Quadracci	director, officer: Chairman, Pres & CEO	QUAD/GRAPHICS, INC., N61 W23044 HARRY'S WAY, SUSSEX WI 53089
Julie A Currie	officer: EVP and Chief Revenue Officer	N61 W23044 HARRY'S WAY, SUSSEX WI 53089
John S Shiely	director	770 NORTH WATER ST, MILWAUKEE WI 53202
Christopher B Harned	director	C/O THE CYPRESS GROUP, 65 EAST 55TH ST, 28TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Thomas J Frankowski	officer: Chief Operating Officer	QUAD/GRAPHICS, INC., N61 W23044 HARRY'S WAY, SUSSEX WI 53089
Kelly A Vanderboom	officer: EVP & Treasurer	QUAD/GRAPHICS, INC., N61 W23044 HARRY'S WAY, SUSSEX WI 53089
Jennifer J. Kent	officer: EVP of Admin. & Gen. Counsel	QUAD/GRAPHICS, INC., N61 W23044 HARRY'S WAY, SUSSEX WI 53089-3995
David J Honan	officer: EVP & CFO	QUAD/GRAPHICS, INC., N61 W23044 HARRY'S WAY, SUSSEX WI 53089