Rite Aid (Rite Aid) Predictability Rank

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What is Rite Aid Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Rite Aid Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Rite Aid (Rite Aid) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Healthcare Providers & Services » Rite Aid Corp (OTCPK:RADCQ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

RTA1:Germany

Address

1200 Intrepid Avenue, PO Box 3165, Philadelphia, PA, USA, 17105

Website

https://www.riteaid.com

Rite Aid Corp is a large retail drugstore chain in the United States. The company reports via two segments: retail pharmacy and pharmacy services. The retail pharmacy segment generates revenue primarily through the sale of prescription drugs, along with an assortment of merchandise that includes over-the-counter medications, health and beauty aids, personal care items, cosmetics, household items, food and beverages, greeting cards, seasonal merchandise, and numerous other everyday consumables. The pharmacy-services segment relates to EnvisionRx, a fully owned subsidiary that operates as a pharmacy benefit management provider offering a broad range of pharmaceutical services.

Executives

Christopher W. Dupaul	officer: Chief Operating Officer	1200 INTREPID AVENUE, 2ND FLOOR, PHILADELPHIA PA 19112
Sabatino Thomas J Jr	officer: Chief Legal Officer	C/O JAN STERN REED BAXTER INTERNATIONAL, ONE BAXTER PARKWAY DF2 2W, DEERFIELD IL 60015
Steven Bixler	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O RITE AID CORPORATION, 30 HUNTER LANE, CAMP HILL PA 17011
Heyward R Donigan	officer: Chief Executive Officer	452 DISCOVERY ROAD, VIRGINIA BEACH VA 23451
Jocelyn Z Konrad	officer: Executive VP	RITE AID CORPORATION, 30 HUNTER LANE, CAMP HILL PA 17011
Ray Smithberger	officer: SVP, Operations	30 HUNTER LANE, CAMP HILL PA 17011
Bari A Harlam	director	C/O MOHAWK GROUP HOLDINGS, INC., 37 EAST 18TH STREET, 7TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
Paul D Gilbert	officer: EVP, Secretary&General Counsel	103 POWELL COURT, SUITE 200, BRENTWOOD TN 37027
Andre Persaud	officer: EVP, Retail	30 HUNTER LANE, CAMP HILL PA 17011
Dan Robson	officer: President, EnvisionRXOptions	30 HUNTER LANE, CAMP HILL PA 17011
James J Peters	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O NXSTAGE MEDICAL, INC., 350 MERRIMACK STREET, LAWRENCE MA 01843
James J Comitale	officer: EVP, General Counsel, Secy.	30 HUNTER LANE, CAMP HILL PA 17011
Jessica Kazmaier	officer: EVP, Chief HR Officer	30 HUNTER LANE, CAMP HILL PA 17011
Justin L. Mennen	officer: EVP, Chief Information Officer	30 HUNTER LANE, CAMP HILL PA 17011
Katherine B Quinn	director	US BANCORP, 800 NICOLLET MALL, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55402