Replimune Group (Replimune Group) Predictability Rank

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What is Replimune Group Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Replimune Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Replimune Group (Replimune Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Replimune Group Inc (NAS:REPL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

7R8:Germany

Address

500 Unicorn Park Drive, Suite 303, Woburn, MA, USA, 01801

Website

https://www.replimune.com

Replimune Group Inc is a clinical-stage biotechnology company. It uses a proprietary RPx platform to design and develop product candidates that are intended to maximally activate the immune system against solid tumors. The RPx platform is based on a proprietary, engineered strain of herpes simplex virus 1, or HSV-1, backbone with payloads added to maximize immunogenic cell death and the induction of a systemic anti-tumor immune response. The company focuses on developing oncolytic immunotherapies for the treatment of cancer. Its pipeline products include RP1, RP2, and RP3.

Executives

Christopher Sarchi	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	C/O REPLIMUNE GROUP, INC., 500 UNICORN PARK DRIVE, WOBURN MA 01801
Konstantinos Xynos	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O REPLIMUNE GROUP, INC., 500 UNICORN PARK DRIVE, WOBURN MA 01801
Emily Luisa Hill	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O PTC THERAPEUTICS, INC., 100 CORPORATE COURT, SOUTH PLAINFIELD NJ 07080
Pamela Esposito	officer: Chief Business Officer	C/O REPLIMUNE GROUP, INC., 18 COMMERCE WAY, WOBURN MA 01801
Sushil Patel	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	C/O REPLIMUNE GROUP, INC., 500 UNICORN PARK, THIRD FLOOR, WOBURN MA 01801
Tanya Lewis	director	C/O KARYOPHARM THERAPEUTICS INC., 85 WELLS AVE., NEWTON MA 02459
Veleka Peeples-dyer	director	C/O REPLIMUNE GROUP, INC., 500 UNICORN PARK DRIVE, WOBURN MA 01801
Andrew Schwendenman	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O REPLIMUNE GROUP, INC., 500 UNICORN PARK DRIVE, WOBURN MA 01801
Philip Astley-sparke	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Executive Chairman	C/O BIOVEX GROUP, INC., 34 COMMERCE WAY, WOBURN MA 10801
Robert Coffin	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President and C.E.O.	C/O BIOVEX GROUP, INC., 34 COMMERCE WAY, WOBURN MA 10801
Love Colin	10 percent owner, officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O REPLIMUNE GROUP, INC., 18 COMMERCE WAY, WOBURN MA 10801
Jean M. Franchi	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O DIMENSION THERAPEUTICS, INC., 840 MEMORIAL DRIVE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Omega Fund Iv Gp, L.p.	10 percent owner	888 BOYLSTON ST., SUITE 1111, BOSTON MA 02199
Christy J. Oliger	director	85 WELLS AVENUE, SUITE 210, NEWTON MA 02459
Jason P Rhodes	director	C/O EPIZYME, INC., 400 TECHNOLOGY SQUARE, 4TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139