What is Regulus Therapeutics Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Regulus Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Regulus Therapeutics (Regulus Therapeutics) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
4224 Campus Point Court, Suite 210, San Diego, CA, USA, 92121
Regulus Therapeutics Inc is a biotechnology company focused on the development of microRNA therapies. MicroRNA therapies target diseases such as cancer, metabolic diseases, fibrosis, and inflammatory diseases. MicroRNA is a noncoding ribonucleic acid that regulates most genes in the genome. The company partnered with Sanofi to create a compound targeting orphan diseases and with AstraZeneca to cure Type 2 Diabetes/prediabetes.
Executives
| Crispina Calsada |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
C/O AMBRX, INC., 10975 N. TORREY PINES RD., LA JOLLA CA 92037 |
| Christopher Ray Aker |
officer: Sr. VP & General Counsel |
C/O REGULUS THERAPEUTICS INC., 10614 SCIENCE CENTER DRIVE, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| Joseph P Hagan |
officer: Chief Operating Officer |
3344 N. TORREY PINES COURT, SUITE 200, LA JOLLA CA 92037 |
| Preston Klassen |
officer: President & Head of R & D |
3344 N. TORREY PINES COURT, SUITE 200, LA JOLLA CA 92037 |
| Denis Drygin |
officer: Chief Scientific Officer |
10628 SCIENCE CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 225, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| Alice Shih-hou Huang |
director |
10628 SCIENCE CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 225, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| Ali Behbahani |
10 percent owner |
5425 WISCONSIN AVE, CHEVY CHASE MD 20815 |
| Mohamad Makhzoumi |
10 percent owner |
2855 SAND HILL ROAD, MENLO PARK CA 94025 |
| Florence Anthony A. Jr. |
10 percent owner |
5425 WISCONSIN AVENUE, SUITE 800, CHEVY CHASE MD 20815 |
| Peter W. Sonsini |
10 percent owner |
2855 SAND HILL ROAD, MENLO PARK CA 94025 |
| Forest Baskett |
10 percent owner |
|
| Joshua Makower |
10 percent owner |
1212 TERRA BELLA AVENUE, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043 |
| Paul Edward Walker |
director |
1954 GREENSPRING DRIVE, SUITE 600, TIMONIUM MD 21093 |
| Carmen Chang |
10 percent owner |
2855 SAND HILL ROAD, MENLO PARK CA 94025 |
| Scott D Sandell |
10 percent owner |
|
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