Regenxbio (Regenxbio) Predictability Rank

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What is Regenxbio Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Regenxbio Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Regenxbio (Regenxbio) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Regenxbio Inc (NAS:RGNX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

RB0:Germany

Address

9804 Medical Center Drive, Rockville, MD, USA, 20850

Website

https://www.regenxbio.com

Regenxbio Inc is a biotechnology company. Its main activity is the development and commercialization of recombinant adeno-associated virus gene therapy to correct an underlying genetic defect. The diseases that Regenxbio platform targets are metabolic (homozygous familial hypercholesterolemia), neurodegenerative conditions (mucopolysaccharidosis), and retinal diseases (wet age-related macular degeneration, X-linked retinitis pigmentosa).

Executives

Kenneth T. Mills	director, officer: See Remarks	C/O REGENXBIO INC., 9804 MEDICAL CENTER DRIVE, ROCKVILLE MD 20850
Vittal Vasista	officer: See Remarks	C/O REGENXBIO INC., 9804 MEDICAL CENTER DRIVE, ROCKVILLE MD 20850
Jennifer Zachary	director	2000 GALLOPING HILL ROAD, KENILWORTH NJ 07033
Steve Pakola	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O REGENXBIO INC., 9804 MEDICAL CENTER DRIVE, ROCKVILLE MD 20850
Allan M. Fox	director, 10 percent owner	C/O REGENXBIO INC., 9804 MEDICAL CENTER DRIVE, ROCKVILLE MD 20850
Jean Bennett	director	C/O REGENXBIO INC., 9804 MEDICAL CENTER DRIVE, ROCKVILLE MD 20850
George V Migausky	director	C/O DYAX CORP., 300 TECHNOLOGY SQUARE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Patrick J. Christmas	officer: Senior VP, General Counsel	C/O REGENXBIO INC., 9804 MEDICAL CENTER DRIVE, ROCKVILLE MD 20850
Curran Simpson	officer: SVP of Technical Operations	C/O REGENXBIO INC., 9804 MEDICAL CENTER DRIVE, ROCKVILLE MD 20850
Hayden Donald J Jr	director	C/O AMICUS THERAPEUTICS, INC., 1 CEDAR BROOK DRIVE, CRANBURY NJ 08512
Olivier Danos	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	C/O REGENXBIO INC., 9804 MEDICAL CENTER DRIVE, ROCKVILLE MD 20850
Luke M Beshar	director	550 HILLS DRIVE, 3RD FLOOR, BEDMINSTER NJ 07921
Stephen Yoo	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O REGENXBIO INC,, 9600 BLACKWELL ROAD, SUITE 210, ROCKVILLE MD 20850
Alexandra Glucksmann	director	C/O REGENXBIO INC., 9804 MEDICAL CENTER DRIVE, ROCKVILLE MD 20850
Daniel Tasse	director	C/O IKARIA, INC., 6 STATE ROUTE 173, CLINTON NJ 08809