RPM International (RPM International) Predictability Rank

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What is RPM International Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

RPM International Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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RPM International (RPM International) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Chemicals » RPM International Inc (NYSE:RPM) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

RP8:Germany RP8:Germany

Address

2628 Pearl Road, P.O. Box 777, Medina, OH, USA, 44256

Website

https://www.rpminc.com

RPM International Inc manufactures and sells a variety of paints, coatings, and adhesives. The firm organizes itself into four segments based on product type. The construction products group sells coatings, roofing, insulation, and other products to distributers, contractors, and end consumers globally. The performance coatings group produces coatings that are used in construction and industrial applications like floorings and corrosion control. The consumer group sells paint, finishes, and similar products to individual consumers through hardware and craft stores. The specialty products group sells a variety of products ranging from niche applications of the other groups, to marine finishes, to edible food colorings. The majority of revenue comes from North America.

Executives

Timothy R. Kinser	officer: VP-Operations	2628 PEARL ROAD, P.O. BOX 777, MEDINA OH 44258
Frederick R. Nance	director	2628 PEARL ROAD, P.O. BOX 777, MEDINA OH 44258
Frank C Sullivan	director, officer: President and CEO
Michael J. Laroche	officer: VP, Controller & CAO	2628 PEARL ROAD, P.O. BOX 777, MEDINA OH 44258
Edward W. Moore	officer: VP, Gen. Counsel & Secretary	2628 PEARL ROAD, P.O. BOX 777, MEDINA OH 44258
Matthew T Ratajczak	officer: VP-Global Tax and Treasurer	2628 PEARL ROAD, P.O. BOX 777, MEDINA OH 44258
Russell L Gordon	officer: VP and CFO	2628 PEARL ROAD, P.O. BOX 777, MEDINA OH 44258
Ellen M Pawlikowski	director	870 WINTER STREET, WALTHAM MA 02451
Elizabeth F Whited	director	1400 DOUGLAS ST, OMAHA NE 68179
Thomas Gross	director	DANAHER CORP, 2099 PENNSYLVANIA AVE NW 12TH FL, WASHINGTON DC 20006
David A. Daberko	director	C/O MARATHON PETROLEUM CORPORATION, 539 S. MAIN STREET, FINDLAY OH 45840
Michael Hobart Sullivan	officer: VP, Operations and CRO	2628 PEARL ROAD, P.O. BOX 777, MEDINA OH 44258
John M Ballbach	director
Kirkland B Andrews	director	C/O EVERGY, INC., 1200 MAIN STREET, KANSAS CITY MO 64105
Robert Livingston	director	C/O DOVER CORPORATION, 3005 HIGHLAND PARKWAY, SUITE 200, DOWNERS GROVE IL 60515