Ryerson Holding (Ryerson Holding) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2014. Start your Free Trial

What is Ryerson Holding Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Ryerson Holding Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Ryerson Holding Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Ryerson Holding's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Ryerson Holding (Ryerson Holding) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » Ryerson Holding Corp (NYSE:RYI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

7RY:Germany

Address

227 West Monroe Street, 27th Floor, Chicago, IL, USA, 60606

Website

https://www.ryerson.com

Ryerson Holding Corp provides a metals service center, and value-added processor and is a distributor of industrial metals with operations in the United States, Canada and Mexico. In addition to its North American operations, it conducts processing and distribution operations in China. Its customers range from local, independently owned fabricators and machine shops to large, international original equipment manufacturers. It carries a full line of products in stainless steel, aluminium, carbon steel, and alloy steels and a limited line of nickel and red metals in various shapes and forms. The company generates substantially all of its revenue from sales of metal products. Geographically, the majority is from the United States.

Executives

Alagu Sundarrajan	officer: Chief Information Officer	227 W. MONROE ST., 27TH FLOOR, CHICAGO IL 60606
Edward J. Lehner	director, officer: President & CEO	C/O RYERSON HOLDING CORPORATION, 227 W. MONROE ST., 27TH FLOOR, CHICAGO IL 60606
Mark S. Silver	officer: EVP, GC & Chief HR Officer	C/O RYERSON HOLDING CORPORATION, 227 W MONROE ST, 27TH FLOOR, CHICAGO IL 60606
Molly D Kannan	officer: CAO & Corporate Controller	227 W MONROE ST 27TH FLOOR, CHICAGO IL 60606
Kirk K Calhoun	director	8285 EL RIO STREET, SUITE 130, HOUSTON TX 77054
Carruthers Court D	director	C/O RYERSON HOLDING CORPORATION, 227 W. MONROE ST., 27TH FLOOR, CHICAGO IL 60606
Stephen P. Larson	director	C/O RYERSON HOLDING CORPORATION, 227 WEST MONROE, 27TH FLOOR, CHICAGO IL 60606
Platinum Equity Llc	10 percent owner	360 NORTH CRESCENT DRIVE, BEVERLY HILLS CA 90210
James J Claussen	officer: Executive Vice President & CFO	227 W. MONROE ST., 27TH FLOOR, CHICAGO IL 60606
John E Orth	officer: EVP, Operations	227 W. MONROE ST., 27TH FLOOR, CHICAGO IL 60606
Michael Burbach	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O RYERSON HOLDING CORPORATION, 227 W. MONROE ST., 27TH FLOOR, CHICAGO IL 60606
Tom Gores	10 percent owner	C/O PLATINUM EQUITY, 360 NORTH CRESCENT DRIVE, SOUTH BUILDING, BEVERLY HILLS CA 90210
Ryps, Llc	10 percent owner	360 NORTH CRESCENT DRIVE, SOUTH BUILDING, BEVERLY HILLS CA 90210
Platinum Equity Partners Ii, Llc	10 percent owner	C/O PLATINUM EQUITY, 360 NORTH CRESCENT DRIVE, SOUTH BUILDING, BEVERLY HILLS CA 90210
Platinum Equity Investment Holdings Ii, Llc	10 percent owner	C/O PLATINUM EQUITY, 360 NORTH CRESCENT DRIVE, SOUTH BUILDING, BEVERLY HILLS CA 90210