SecureWorks (SecureWorks) Predictability Rank

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What is SecureWorks Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

SecureWorks Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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SecureWorks (SecureWorks) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » SecureWorks Corp (NAS:SCWX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

NN STEM IIIV CCSI RPAY IMXI GCT PSFE LVOX CINT MSFT ORCL ADBE PANW SNPS VMW FTNT CRWD PLTR SPLK

Traded in Other Exchanges

07S:Germany 07S:Germany

Address

One Concourse Parkway North East, Suite 500, Atlanta, GA, USA, 30328

Website

https://www.secureworks.com

SecureWorks Corp is a cybersecurity provider of technology-driven solutions singularly focused on protecting its customers by outpacing and outmaneuvering the adversary. The company offers its customers the following services; software-as-a-service, or SaaS, solutions, managed solutions, and professional services, including incident response and adversarial services. Its solutions enable organizations to fortify their cyber defenses to prevent security breaches, detect malicious activity in real-time, prioritize and respond to security incidents, and predict emerging threats.

Executives

Neil Gagnon	10 percent owner	1370 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 24TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Alpana Wegner	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O BENEFITFOCUS, INC., 100 BENEFITFOCUS WAY, CHARLESTON SC 29492
Stephen Fulton	officer: President, Customer Success	C/O SECUREWORKS CORP., ONE CONCOURSE PARKWAY NE, SUITE 500, ATLANTA GA 30328
Pamela Daley	director	C/O PATHEON N.V., HERENGRACHT 483, AMSTERDAM P7 1017 BT
Mark J Hawkins	director	C/O LOGITECH, INC., 6505 KAISER DRIVE, FREMONT CA 94555
Wendy Thomas	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O SECUREWORKS CORP., ONE CONCOURSE PARKWAY NE, SUITE 500, ATLANTA GA 30328
George B Hanna	officer: Chief Legal & Admin Officer	C/O SECUREWORKS CORP., ONE CONCOURSE PARKWAY NE, SUITE 500, ATLANTA GA 30328
Christian Grant	officer: VP, Chief Accounting Officer	C/O SECUREWORKS CORP., ONE CONCOURSE PARKWAY NE, SUITE 500, ATLANTA GA 30328
Paul Parrish	officer: Chief Financial Officer	705 WESTECH DRIVE, NORCROSS GA 30092
Michael R Cote	10 percent owner	1 CONCOURSE PARKWAY, SUITE 500, ATLANTA GA 30328
Centerview Capital Technology Employee Fund, L.p.	10 percent owner	555 CALIFORNIA STREET, SUITE 3305, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Centerview Capital Technology Ltd.	10 percent owner	64 WILLOW PLACE, SUITE 101, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Centerview Capital Technology Fund Gp (delaware), L.p.	10 percent owner	64 WILLOW PLACE, SUITE 101, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Centerview Capital Technology Fund (delaware), L.p.	10 percent owner	64 WILLOW PLACE, SUITE 101, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Centerview Capital Technology Fund-a (delaware), L.p.	10 percent owner	64 WILLOW PLACE, SUITE 101, MENLO PARK CA 94025