The L S Starrett Co (The L S Starrett Co) Predictability Rank

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What is The L S Starrett Co Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

The L S Starrett Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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The L S Starrett Co (The L S Starrett Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » The L S Starrett Co (NYSE:SCX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

121 Crescent Street, Athol, MA, USA, 01331

Website

https://www.starrett.com

The L S Starrett Co is engaged in the manufacturing of industrial, professional and consumer measuring and cutting tools and related products. Its products include precision tools, electronic gages, gage blocks, optical vision and laser measuring equipment, custom engineered granite solutions, tape measures, levels, chalk products, squares, band saw blades, hole saws, hacksaw blades, jig saw blades, and others. Its products are used in different industries such as metalworking, automotive, aviation, marine, farm, and "do-it-yourselfers" and tradesmen such as builders, carpenters, plumbers and electricians. The operating segments of the company are North American Operations is a key revenue driver; International Operations and Global Test and Measurement.

Executives

Douglas A Starrett	officer: President & CEO	121 CRESCENT STREET, ATHOL MA 01331
John C. Tripp	officer: CFO	C/O THE L.S. STARRETT COMPANY, 121 CRESCENT STREET, ATHOL MA 01331
David T. Allen	other: Insider	121 CRESCENT STREET, ATHOL MA 01331
Emerson Leme	officer: VP Of Industrial Products	C/O THE L.S. STARRETT COMPANY, 121 CRESCENT STREET, ATHOL MA 01331
Charles Alpuche	director	C/O INSULET CORPORATION, 600 TECHNOLOGY PARK DRIVE, SUITE 200, BILLERICA MA 01821
Christian Arntsen	officer: VP of International Products	C/O THE L.S. STARRETT COMPANY, 121 CRESCENT STREET, ATHOL MA 01331
Deborah Gordon	director	121 CRESCENT STREET, ATHOL MA 01331
Thomas J Riordan	director	C/O TEREX CORPORATION, 200 NYALA FARM ROAD, WESTPORT CT 06880
Scott William Sproule	director	C/O SPX CORPORATION, 13320 BALLANTYNE CORPORATE PLACE, CHARLOTTE NC 28277
Terry A Piper	director	121 CRESCENT STREET, ATHOLL MA 01331
Chris Gahagan	director	AVID TECHNOLOGY, INC., 75 NETWORK DRIVE, BURLINGTON MA 01803
Russell D. Carreker	director	121 CRESCENT STREET, ATHOL MA 01331
David A Lemoine	director	C/O THE L S STARRETT COMPANY, 121 CRESCENT STREET, ATHOL MA 01331
Richard Kennedy	director	121 CRESCENT STREET, ATHOL MA 01331
Francis J O'brien	officer: Treasurer & CFO	C/O THE L. S. STARRETT COMPANY, 121 CRESCENT STREET, ATHOL MA 01331