What is SolarEdge Technologies Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
SolarEdge Technologies Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
SolarEdge Technologies (SolarEdge Technologies) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
1 HaMada Street, Post Box 12001, Herziliya Pituach, ISR, 4673335
SolarEdge Technologies designs, develops, and sells direct current optimized inverter systems for solar photovoltaic installations. The company system consists of power optimizers, inverters, and cloud-based monitoring platform and addresses a broad range of solar market segments, from residential solar installations to commercial and small utility-scale solar installations. The company sells its products directly to solar installers, engineering, procurement, and construction firms and indirectly to solar installers through distributors and electrical equipment wholesalers. Additionally, the company has nonsolar products targeting energy storage and e-mobility.
Executives
| Marcel Gani |
director |
142 ALMENDRAL AVE, ATHERTON CA 94027 |
| More Avery |
director |
5930 ROYAL LANE SUITE E-120, DALLAS TX 75230 |
| Ronen Faier |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
MARVA 11, HERZLIA L3 46417 |
| Dana Rebecca Gross |
director |
C/O PLAYTIKA LTD., HACHOSHLIM ST 8, HERZLIYA PITUARCH L3 4672408 |
| Meir Adest |
officer: VP, Core Technologies |
1 HAMADA STREET, HERZILIYA PITUACH L3 4673335 |
| Uri Bechor |
officer: Chief Operating Officer |
1 HAMADA STREET, HERZILIYA PITUACH L3 4673335 |
| Zvi Lando |
officer: Vice President, Global Sales |
1 HAMADA STREET, HERZILIYA PITUACH L3 4673335 |
| Rachel Prishkolnik |
officer: VP, GC and Corporate Secretary |
1 HAMADA STREET, HERZILIYA PITUACH L3 4673335 |
| Dirk Hoke |
director |
251 RHODE ISLAND STREET, SUITE 204, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103 |
| Doron Inbar |
director |
C/O CARMEL VENTURES, 12 ABBA EBAN AVENUE, HERZELIYA L3 46725 |
| Yoav Galin |
officer: VP, Research and Development |
1 HAMADA STREET, HERZILIYA PITUACH L3 4673335 |
| Tal Payne |
director |
1 HAMADA STREET, HERZILIYA PITUACH L3 4673335 |
| Betsy S Atkins |
director |
|
| Jonathan Cheifetz |
director |
9 EIN YAKOV ST., TEL AVIV L3 65155 |
| Lior Handelsman |
officer: VP, Marktng and Prod Strategy |
1 HAMADA STREET, HERZILIYA PITUACH L3 4673335 |
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