Global Self Storage (Global Self Storage) Predictability Rank

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What is Global Self Storage Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Global Self Storage Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Global Self Storage (Global Self Storage) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Global Self Storage Inc (NAS:SELF) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

3814 Route 44, Millbrook, New York, NY, USA, 12545

Website

https://www.globalselfstorage.us

Global Self Storage Inc is a self-administered and self-managed REIT that owns, operates, manages, acquires, develops and redevelops self-storage properties. The company's self-storage properties are designed to offer affordable, easily accessible and secure storage space for residential and commercial customers. It has one segment of Rental operations. Through its wholly-owned subsidiaries, the company owns and/or manages close to 13 self-storage properties in Connecticut, Illinois, Indiana, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, and Oklahoma.

Executives

Tuxis Corp	other: See "Explanation of Responses"	11 HANOVER SQUARE, NEW YORK NY 10005
Donald Ii Klimoski	officer: General Counsel	3814 ROUTE 44, MILLBROOK NY 12545
Mark Campbell Winmill	director, officer: President and CEO	3814 ROUTE 44, MILLBROOK NY 12545
Carroll Sally Coonrad	director	3814 ROUTE 44, MILLBROOK NY 12545
George B Langa	director	3814 ROUTE 44, MILLBROOK NY 12545
Burke Russell E Iii	director	3814 ROUTE 44, MILLBROOK NY 12545
Investor Service Center Inc /de	other: See "Explanation of Responses"	11 HANOVER SQUARE, NEW YORK NY 10005
Russell Kamerman	officer: Assistant General Counsel	3814 ROUTE 44, MILLBROOK NY 12545
William Chester Zachary	director	136 EAST 64TH ST, APT 6D, NEW YORK NY 10065
Thomas Omalley	officer: Chief Financial Officer	3814 ROUTE 44, MILLBROOK NY 12545
Winmill & Co. Inc	other: See "Explanation of Responses"	2255 BUFFALO ROAD, ROCHESTER NY 14624
Bexil Corp	other: See "Explanation of Responses"	2255 BUFFALO ROAD, ROCHESTER NY 14624
Hwang Eric Paul C.	other: See "Explanation of Responses"	11 HANOVER SQUARE, NEW YORK NY 10005
Bruce B Huber	director	11 HANOVER SQUARE, NEW YORK NY 10005
Jacob Bukhsbaum	officer: Chief Compliance Officer, other: See "Explanation of Responses"	11 HANOVER SQUARE, NEW YORK NY 10005