Sharecare (Sharecare) Predictability Rank

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What is Sharecare Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Sharecare Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Sharecare Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Sharecare (Sharecare) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Healthcare Providers & Services » Sharecare Inc (NAS:SHCR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

8DJ0:Germany

Address

255 East Paces Ferry Road NE, Suite 700, Atlanta, GA, USA, 30305

Website

https://www.sharecare.com

Sharecare Inc is a digital healthcare platform company that helps members consolidate and manage various components of their health in one place, regardless of their health journey. Its platform offers an accessible, interactive, personalized, and rewarding environment that aims to transform user engagement with healthcare from episodic to every day. The platform provides a single destination for people, patients, and caregivers to access quality and clinically reviewed content; digitally connect with other patients, community members, and healthcare professionals; and adopt action plans provided by healthcare professionals from top institutions.

Executives

Brent D Layton	director	7700 FORSYTH BOULEVARD, ST. LOUIS MO 63130
Michael Blalock	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O SHARECARE, INC., 255 E. PACES FERRY RD. NE, SUITE 700, ATLANTA GA 30305
Carrie Ratliff	officer: Chief Legal Officer	C/O SHARECARE, INC., 255 EAST PACES FERRY ROAD NE, SUITE 700, ATLANTA GA 30305
Jaffry Mohammed	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O SHARECARE, INC., 255 E. PACES FERRY RD. NE, SUITE 700, ATLANTA GA 30305
Jeffrey Sagansky	director	1450 2ND STREET, SUITE 247, SANTA MONICA CA 90401
Kenneth R Goulet	director	C/O SHARECARE, INC., 255 EAST PACES FERRY ROAD NE, SUITE 700, ATLANTA GA 30305
Sandro Galea	director	C/O SHARECARE, INC., 255 EAST PACES FERRY ROAD NE, SUITE 700, ATLANTA GA 30305
Veronica Mallett	director	C/O SHARECARE, INC., 255 EAST PACES FERRY ROAD NE, SUITE 700, ATLANTA GA 30305
John Huston Chadwick	director, other: Affiliate of 10% owner	C/O CLARITAS CAPITAL, 30 BURTON HILLS BOULEVARD, SUITE 100, NASHVILLE TN 37215
Jeffrey A Allred	director	C/O SHARECARE, INC., 255 EAST PACES FERRY ROAD NE, SUITE 700, ATLANTA GA 30305
Alan G. Mnuchin	director	2121 AVENUE OF THE STARS, SUITE 2300, LOS ANGELES CA 90067
Jeffrey T Arnold	director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO and Chairman	C/O SHARECARE, INC., 255 EAST PACES FERRY ROAD NE, SUITE 700, ATLANTA GA 30305
Dawn Whaley	officer: President, CMO	C/O SHARECARE, INC., 255 EAST PACES FERRY ROAD NE, SUITE 700, ATLANTA GA 30305
Justin Ferrero	officer: President, CFO	C/O SHARECARE, INC., 255 EAST PACES FERRY ROAD NE, SUITE 700, ATLANTA GA 30305
Claritas Sc Bactes Partners, Llc	other: Affiliate of 10% Owner	30 BURTON HILLS BOULEVARD, SUITE 100, NASHVILLE TN 37215