Skechers USA (Skechers USA) Predictability Rank

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What is Skechers USA Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Skechers USA Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Skechers USA Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Skechers USA (Skechers USA) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Manufacturing - Apparel & Accessories » Skechers USA Inc (NYSE:SKX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

SKAA:Germany SKAA:Germany

Address

228 Manhattan Beach Boulevard, Manhattan Beach, CA, USA, 90266

Website

https://www.skechers.com

Skechers USA Inc is a lifestyle footwear company under the Skechers GO brand name. Products offered include various styles of women's shoes, men's shoes, girl's shoes, boy's shoes, performance shoes, and work shoes. Allied products offered are apparel, bags, eyewear, toys, and more. Its products are available for sale at department and specialty stores, athletic and independent retailers, boutiques, and internet retailers. The company's operating segments include Wholesale, and Direct-to-Consumer. It generates maximum revenue from the Wholesale segment.

Executives

Robert Greenberg	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	SKECHERS USA INC, 228 MANHATTAN BEACH BLVD, MANHATTAN BEACH CA 90266
Michael Greenberg	director, officer: President	SKECHERS USA INC, 228 MANHATTAN BEACH BLVD, MANHATTAN BEACH CA 90266
Phillip Paccione	officer: General Counsel & Secretary
Katherine J. Blair	director	228 MANHATTAN BEACH BOULEVARD, MANHATTAN BEACH CA 90266
Richard Siskind	director	C/O R SISKIND & CO, 1385 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10018
Mark A Nason	officer: Executive VP
David Weinberg	director, officer: Chief Operating Officer
Yolanda Macias	director	228 MANHATTAN BEACH BLVD., MANHATTAN BEACH CA 90266
Zulema Garcia	director	228 MANHATTAN BEACH BLVD., MANHATTAN BEACH CA 90266
Jeffrey Greenberg	director
Thomas Walsh	director	12548 W. FETLOCK TRAIL, PEORIA AZ 85383
Richard Rappaport	director	1900 AVENUE OF THE STARS, SUITE 301, LOS ANGELES CA 90067
John M Vandemore	officer: Chief Financial Officer	6355 S. BUFFALO DRIVE, LAS VEGAS NV 89521
Morton D Erlich	director	228 MANHATTAN BEACH BLVD., MANHATTAN BEACH CA 90266
Geyer Kosinski	director