What is Salarius Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Salarius Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Salarius Pharmaceuticals (Salarius Pharmaceuticals) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
2450 Holcombe Boulevard, Suite X, Houston, TX, USA, 77021
Salarius Pharmaceuticals Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on developing effective treatments for cancers with high, unmet medical needs. The Company has focused on two classes of drugs that address gene dysregulation: targeted protein inhibitors and targeted protein degradation. Its Pipeline includes seclidemstat (SP-2577), a small molecular inhibitor, and SP-3164, a small molecular protein degrader.
Executives
| Tess Burleson |
director |
2450 HOLCOME BLVD., SUITE J-608, HOUSTON TX 77021 |
| Jonathan I Lieber |
director |
C/O HISTOGENICS CORPORATION, 830 WINTER STREET #3, WALTHAM MA 02451 |
| William K. Mcvicar |
director |
C/O INOTEK PHARMACEUTICALS CORPORATION, 131 HARTWELL AVENUE, SUITE 105, LEXINGTON MA 02421 |
| Arnold C Hanish |
director |
201 ELLIOTT AVENUE WEST, SEATTLE WA 98119 |
| Mark J Rosenblum |
officer: Exec VP Finance, Interim CFO |
3990 SPRING VALLEY ROAD, APT. 1218, DALLAS TX 75244 |
| David J. Arthur |
director, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
2450 HOLCOME BLVD., SUITE J-608, HOUSTON TX 77021 |
| Scott Jordan |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
2450 HOLCOME BLVD., SUITE J-608, HOUSTON TX 77021 |
| Mccreedy Bruce J Jr. |
director |
2450 HOLCOME BLVD., SUITE J-608, HOUSTON TX 77021 |
| Jonathan P Northrup |
director |
2450 HOLCOME BLVD., SUITE J-608, HOUSTON TX 77021 |
| Pao-yu Chuang |
officer: Controller |
2450 HOLCOMBE BLVD., SUITE J-608, HOUSTON TX 77021 |
| Paul Lammers |
director |
2408 TIMBERLOCH PLACE, B-7, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380 |
| Boston Foundation, Inc. |
10 percent owner |
75 ARLINGTON STREET, BOSTON MA 02116 |
| Christoph H Westphal |
10 percent owner |
C/O ALNYLAM PHARMACEUTICALS, INC, 300 THIRD STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142 |
| Longwood Fund Ii, L.p. |
10 percent owner |
800 BOYLSTON STREET, SUITE 1555, BOSTON MA 02199 |
| Roger D Tung |
director |
99 HAYDEN AVENUE, SUITE 500, LEXINGTON MA 02421 |
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