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Spruce Power Holding (Spruce Power Holding) Predictability Rank


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What is Spruce Power Holding Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Spruce Power Holding Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Spruce Power Holding Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Spruce Power Holding (Spruce Power Holding) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
1875 Lawrence Street, Suite 320, Denver, CO, USA, 80202
Spruce Power Holding Corp is a renewable-focused Power-as-a-Service company offering solar battery installation and maintenance services, It provides subscription-based services for homeowners and small businesses to own and maintain rooftop solar and battery storage. Its solutions offerings comprise Battery Bundles and System Expansion Options.
Executives
Christian S. Fong director, officer: President and CEO 7550 WISCONSIN AVENUE, 9TH FLOOR, BETHESDA MD 20814
Jonathan J Ledecky director C/O THE LEDECKY FOUNDATION, 901 - 15TH STREET, NW, SUITE 950, WASHINGTON DC 20005
Christopher M. Hayes director C/O XL HYBRIDS, INC., 145 NEWTON STREET, BOSTON MA 02135
Eric M. Tech director, officer: CEO 2701 NAVISTAR DRIVE, LISLE IL 60532
Jonathan M Norling officer: Chief Legal Officer 820 GESSNER ROAD, SUITE 500, HOUSTON TX 77024
Sarah Weber Wells officer: SVP of Fin & Acc & Sustain' 820 GESSNER ROAD, SUITE 500, HOUSTON TX 77024
John P. Miller director 26W073 MOHICAN DRIVE, WHEATON IL 60189
Stacey Constas officer: General Counsel 47000 LIBERTY DRIVE, WIXOM MI 48393
Michael Kenhard officer: CTO and VP of Engineering 47000 LIBERTY DRIVE, WIXOM MI 48393
Calhoun Colleen officer: VP / GM of XL Grid 515 W. GREENS ROAD, SUITE 1200, HOUSTON TX 77067
Donald P Klein officer: Chief Financial Officer 201 MITTEL DRIVE, WOOD DALE IL 60191
Cielo Hernandez officer: Chief Financial Officer C/O XL FLEET CORP., 145 NEWTON STREET, BOSTON MA 02135
Berklas James P Jr officer: General Counsel 123 MAIN STREET, BRISTOL CT 06010
Sarah Sclarsic director C/O PIVOTAL INVESTMENT CORPORATION II, C/O GRAUBARD MILLER, 405 LEXINGTON AVE, NEW YORK NY 10174
Niharika Ramdev director C/O XL HYBRIDS, INC., 145 NEWTON STREET, BOSTON MA 02135