SWK Holdings (SWK Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is SWK Holdings Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

SWK Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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SWK Holdings (SWK Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » SWK Holdings Corp (NAS:SWKH) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

14755 Preston Road, Suite 105, Dallas, TX, USA, 75254

Website

https://www.swkhold.com

SWK Holdings Corp is a healthcare capital provider. The company offers financing solutions to various life science companies, institutions, and inventors. It involves monetizing cash flow streams derived from commercial-stage products and related intellectual property through royalty purchases and financings, as well as through the creation of synthetic revenue interests in commercialized products. Through its wholly-owned subsidiary, it also provides non-discretionary investment advisory services to institutional clients. The company's operating segments are Finance Receivables and Pharmaceutical Development Services. It generates maximum revenue from the Finance Receivables segment.

Executives

Jerry Albright	director	C/O SWK HOLDINGS CORP, 14755 PRESTON ROAD, SUITE 105, DALLAS TX 75254
Yvette M Heinrichson	officer: Chief Financial Officer	14755 PRESTON ROAD, SUITE 105, DALLAS TX 75254
Staggs Joe David Jr	officer: PRESIDENT	14755 PRESTON ROAD, SUITE 105, DALLAS TX 75254
Marcus Edward Pennington	director	2100 MCKINNEY AVENUE, SUITE 1800, DALLAS TX 75201
Wendy F Dicicco	director
Robert K. Hatcher	director	2929 ALLEN PARKWAY, SUITE 3000, HOUSTON TX 77019
Laurie L. Dotter	director	3615 WEST LAWTHER DRIVE, DALLAS TX 75214
Black Winston L Iii	officer: Chief Executive Officer	14755 PRESTON ROAD, SUITE 105, DALLAS TX 75254
Fletcher Aaron G.l.	director	40 GUEST STREET, BOSTON MA 02135
Carlson Capital L P	director, 10 percent owner, other: See Remarks	2100 MCKINNEY AVE, STE 1900, DALLAS TX 75201
Dana Blair Baker	director	200 CRESCENT COURT, SUITE 1450, DALLAS TX 75201
James Brett Pope	director, officer: CEO	4020 SAHARA CT., CARROLLTON TX 75010
Edward B Stead	director	14755 PRESTON ROAD, SUITE 105, DALLAS TX 75254
Christopher W Haga	director	PO BOX 10809, DAYTONA BEACH FL 32120
Black Diamond Offshore Ltd.	director, 10 percent owner, other: See Remarks	CITCO FUND SERVICES, 89 NEXUS WAY, P.O. BOX 31106, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1205