Southwestern Energy Co (Southwestern Energy Co) Predictability Rank

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What is Southwestern Energy Co Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Southwestern Energy Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Southwestern Energy Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Southwestern Energy Co (Southwestern Energy Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Southwestern Energy Co (NYSE:SWN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

SWN:Mexico SW5:Germany SW5:Germany

Address

10000 Energy Drive, Spring, TX, USA, 77389

Website

https://www.swn.com

Southwestern Energy Co is a us-based independent energy company. It is engaged in exploration, development and production activities, including related natural gas gathering and marketing. The company principally carries its business activities in the United States. The operating segments of the company are the Exploration and Production and Marketing segment. Its Exploration and Production segment is the key revenue driver for the company which includes the revenue derived from the production and sale of natural gas and liquids. The Marketing segment generates revenue through the marketing of both the company and third-party produced natural gas and liquids volumes and through gathering fees associated with the transportation of natural gas to market.

Executives

Shameek Konar	director	CONSTELLATION ENERGY GROUP, INC., 100 CONSTELLATION WAY, SUITE 1800P, BALTIMORE MD 21202
Dennis Price	officer: SVP - Mktg, Trans & Comm	10000 ENERGY DRIVE, P. O. BOX 12359, SPRING TX 77391-2359
Carl Fredrick Giesler	officer: Executive Vice President & CFO	10000 ENERGY DRIVE, P. O. BOX 12359, SPRING TX 77391-2359
Gregory D Kerley	officer: Executive VP and CFO	10000 ENERGY DRIVE, SPRING TX 77389
Andrew T Huggins	officer: VP, Business and Comm Dev	10000 ENERGY DRIVE, P. O. BOX 12359, SPRING TX 77391-2359
John P Kelly	officer: SVP and Division Head	10000 ENERGY DRIVE, P. O. BOX 12359, SPRING TX 77391-2359
Derek W Cutright	officer: SVP and Division Head	10000 ENERGY DRIVE, P. O. BOX 12359, SPRING TX 77391-2359
William Q Dyson	officer: SVP - Operations Services	10000 ENERGY DRIVE, P. O. BOX 12359, SPRING TX 77391
Carina L Gillenwater	officer: VP, Human Resources and Admin	10000 ENERGY DRIVE, P. O. BOX 12359, SPRING TX 77391-2359
Christopher W Lacy	officer: VP-General Counsel & Secretary	10000 ENERGY DRIVE, P. O. BOX 12359, SPRING TX 77391
Michael E Hancock	officer: Vice President and Interim CFO	10000 ENERGY DRIVE, P. O. BOX 12359, SPRING TX 77391
Johnson S P Iv	director	10000 ENERGY DRIVE, P. O. BOX 12359, SPRING TX 77391
Richard Jason Kurtz	officer: Vice President	10000 ENERGY DRIVE, P. O. BOX 12359, SPRING TX 77391
Julian Mark Bott	officer: EVP	625 LIBERTY AVENUE, C/O EQT MIDSTREAM PARTNERS, PITTSBURGH PA 15222
William J Way	officer: Executive VP and COO	2350 N SAM HOUSTON PARKWAY EAST, SUITE 125, HOUSTON TX 77032