TransDigm Group (TransDigm Group) Predictability Rank

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What is TransDigm Group Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

TransDigm Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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TransDigm Group (TransDigm Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Aerospace & Defense » TransDigm Group Inc (NYSE:TDG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

TDG:Mexico T7D:Germany T1DG34:Brazil

Address

1301 East 9th Street, Suite 3000, Cleveland, OH, USA, 44114

Website

https://www.transdigm.com

TransDigm manufactures and services a diverse set of components and parts for commercial and military aircraft. The firm organizes itself in three segments: a power and control segment, airframes, and a small nonaviation segment, which serves mostly off-road vehicles and mining equipment. It operates as an acquisitive holding company that focuses its portfolio on firms that make proprietary products with substantial aftermarket demand. TransDigm regularly employs financial leverage to amplify its operating results.

Executives

Joel Reiss	officer: Executive Vice President	1301 E. 9TH STREET, SUITE 3000, CLEVELAND OH 44114
W Nicholas Howley	officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O TRANSDIGM INC., 1301 EAST NINTH STREET, SUITE 3710, CLEVELAND OH 44114
Michael Lisman	officer: Chief Financial Officer	1301 EAST 9TH STREET, SUITE 3000, CLEVELAND OH 44114
Robert J Small	director
Sean P Hennessy	director	C/O THE SHERWIN WILLIAMS CO, 101 PROSPECT AVE NW, CLEVELAND OH 44115
Jorge Valladares	officer: Pres., Adel Wiggins Group	ADELWIGGINS GROUP, 5000 TRIGGS STREET, LOS ANGELES CA 90022
Sarah Wynne	officer: Corporate Accounting Officer	1301 EAST 9TH STREET, SUITE 3000, CLEVELAND OH 44114
Kevin M Stein	officer: COO - Power	TRANSDIGM GROUP INCORPORATED, 1301 EAST 9TH STREET, SUITE 3000, CLEVELAND OH 44114
Jessica L Warren	officer: GC, CCO, Secretary	1301 EAST NINTH STREET, SUITE 3000, CLEVELAND OH 44114
Mervin Dunn	director	COMMERCIAL VEHICLE GROUP, INC., 6530 WEST CAMPUS WAY, NEW ALBANY OH 43054
John Staer	director	C.F.MOLLERS ALLE 16, 8TV, 2300 COPENHAGEN S G7 DK
Jane M. Cronin	director	101 W. PROSPECT AVENUE, CLEVELAND OH 44115
Raymond F Laubenthal	officer: President and COO	TRANSDIGM GROUP INCORPORATED, 1301 EAST 9TH STREET, SUITE 3710, CLEVELAND OH 44114
Robert S Henderson	officer: Exec.V.P. & Pres., AdelWiggins	ADELWIGGINS GROUP, 5000 TRIGGS STREET, LOS ANGELES CA 90022
Halle Fine Terrion	officer: GC, CCO, Secretary	1301 EAST 9TH STREET, SUITE 3000, CLEVELAND OH 44114