What is Tech Data Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Tech Data Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Tech Data (Tech Data) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
5350 Tech Data Drive, Clearwater, FL, USA, 33760
Tech Data Corp is a wholesale distributor of technology products. It acts as an intermediary in the technology supply chain by bringing products from technology vendors to market and providing customers with logistics capabilities. The firm's customers include value-added resellers, direct marketers, retailers, and corporate resellers. Nearly half of its product mix is broadline products including notebooks, desktops, and printers; the rest includes data center, software, mobility, and consumer electronics products. More than half of the firm's revenue is generated in the Americas and the rest from Europe.
Executives
| Karen M Dahut |
director |
8283 GREENSBORO DRIVE, MCLEAN VA 22102 |
| Bridgette P Heller |
director |
TECH DATA CORPORATION, 5350 TECH DATA DRIVE, CLEARWATER FL 33760 |
| Richard T Hume |
officer: Chief Executive Officer |
5350 TECH DATA DRIVE, CLEARWATER FL 33760 |
| Robert M Dutkowsky |
director |
JD EDWARDS & CO, ONE TECHNOLOGY WAY, DENVER CO 80237 |
| Charles E Adair |
director |
|
| Thomas I Morgan |
director |
30541 CARNEY CREEK ROAD, BIGFORK MT 59911 |
| Savio Tung |
director |
280 PARK AVE, 37TH FLR WEST TOWER, NEW YORK NY 10017 |
| Kathy Misunas |
director |
|
| Patrick Zammit |
officer: President, Europe |
KOUTERVELDSTRAAT 20, DIEGEM C9 B-1831 |
| Harczak Harry J Jr |
director |
C/O XA INVESTMENTS, 1290 BROADWAY STE 1100, DENVER CO 80203 |
| Steven A Raymund |
director |
C/O TECH DATA CORP, 5350 TECH DATA DRIVE, CLEARWATER FL 33760 |
| Murray N Wright |
officer: President, Americas |
11126 MCCORMICK ROAD, HUNT VALLEY MD 21031 |
| Kenneth T Lamneck |
officer: President, The Americas |
INSIGHT ENTERPRISES, INC., 6820 SOUTH HARL AVENUE, TEMPE AZ 85283 |
| Sharon P Nadeau |
officer: Senior Vice President HR |
6240 SEA HARBOR DR, ORLANDO FL 32821 |
| James M Cracchiolo |
director |
|
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