Tenable Holdings (Tenable Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is Tenable Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Tenable Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Tenable Holdings (Tenable Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Tenable Holdings Inc (NAS:TENB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

RELY ALTR DLO S WIX AFRM TDC FIVN INFA QLYS MSFT ORCL ADBE PANW SNPS VMW FTNT CRWD PLTR SPLK

Traded in Other Exchanges

TENB:Mexico TE7:Germany

Address

6100 Merriweather Drive, Columbia, MD, USA, 21044

Website

https://www.tenable.com

Founded in 2002, Tenable is a cybersecurity company that began providing vulnerability management solutions under its Nessus software. In recent years, Tenable has expanded its portfolio to provide a broader range of exposure management modules. Solutions include cloud security and compliance, active directory management, operational technology security and advanced vulnerability analytics. The Maryland-based company went public in 2018.

Executives

Amit Yoran	director, officer: President, CEO and Chairman	C/O TENABLE HOLDINGS, INC., 6100 MERRIWEATHER DRIVE, COLUMBIA MD 21044
Mark C. Thurmond	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O TENABLE HOLDINGS, INC.0, 6100 MERRIWEATHER DRIVE, 12TH FLOOR, COLUMBIA MD 21044
Stephen A Vintz	officer: Chief Financial Officer	4296 FORBES BOULEVARD, LANHAM MD 20706
Linda Kay Zecher	director	C/O HASBRO, INC., 1011 NEWPORT AVENUE, PAWTUCKET RI 02861
Margaret M Keane	director	777 LONG RIDGE ROAD, SYNCHRONY FINANCIAL C/O CORP. SECRETARY, STAMFORD CT 06902
Raymond Jr. Vicks	director	C/O ACCESS GOHEALTH ONDEMAND, INC., 5555 GLENRIDGE CONNECTOR, SUITE 700, ATLANTA GA 30342
George Alex Tosheff	director	23 CORPORATE PLAZA, SUITE 280, NEWPORT BEACH CA 92660
Coviello Arthur W Jr	director	EMC CORPORATION, 176 SOUTH STREET, HOPKINTON MA 01748
Stephen A Riddick	officer: General Counsel & Secretary	C/O TENABLE HOLDINGS, INC., 6100 MERRIWEATHER DRIVE, COLUMBIA MD 21044
Jerry M Kennelly	director	199 FREMONT STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Niloofar Razi Howe	director	C/O TENABLE HOLDINGS, INC., 6100 MERRIWEATHER DRIVE, COLUMBIA MD 21044
Ping Li	director, 10 percent owner	428 UNIVERSITY AVENUE, PALO ALTO CA 94301
Kimberly Hammonds	director	100 EAST DAVIE STREET, RALEIGH NC 27601
Insight Holdings Group, Llc	10 percent owner	1114 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 36TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
Ivp Gp (venice), Llc	10 percent owner	PO BOX 309, UGLAND HOUSE, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1104