GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » ThermoGenesis Holdings Inc (NAS:THMO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

ThermoGenesis Holdings (ThermoGenesis Holdings) Predictability Rank


View and export this data going back to 1987. Start your Free Trial

What is ThermoGenesis Holdings Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


ThermoGenesis Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

ThermoGenesis Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of ThermoGenesis Holdings's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


ThermoGenesis Holdings (ThermoGenesis Holdings) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
2711 Citrus Road, Rancho Cordova, CA, USA, 95742
ThermoGenesis Holdings Inc develops, commercializes and markets a range of automated technologies for CAR-T and other cell-based therapies. The company currently markets a full suite of solutions for automated clinical biobanking, point-of-care applications, and automation for immuno-oncology, including its semi-automated, functionally-closed CAR-TXpress platform, which streamlines the manufacturing process for the emerging CAR-T immunotherapy market. It offers the AutoXpress and BioArchive platforms for automated clinical bio-banking, PXP platform for point-of-care cell-based therapies and CAR-TXpress platform for bio-manufacturing for immuno-oncology applications.
Executives
Xiaochun Xu director 2453 S. ARCHER AVE., STE. B, CHICAGO IL 60616
Biao Xi director C/O THERMOGENESIS HOLDINGS, INC., 2711 CITRUS ROAD, RANCHO CORDOVA CA 95742
James Xu director 2453 S. ARCHER AVE, SUITE B, CHICAGO IL 60616
Haihong Zhu director 2711 CITRUS ROAD, RANCHO CORDOVA CA 95742
Debra Donaghy director C/O THERMOGENESIS HOLDINGS, INC., 2711 CITRUS RD., RANCHO CORDOVA CA 95742
Boyalife (hong Kong) Ltd 10 percent owner 2453 S. ARCHER AVE., STE. B, CHICAGO IL 60616
Thomis Joseph director MALEIZENSTRAAT 66, HERENT C9 B-3020
Boyalife Asset Holding Ii, Inc. 10 percent owner 2453 S. ARCHER AVE., SUITE B, CHICAGO IL 60616
Boyalife Group, Inc. 10 percent owner 2453 S. ARCHER AVE., SUITE B, CHICAGO IL 60616
Russell M Medford director 7935 FAWNDALE WAY, ATLANTA GA 30350
Mark Westgate director 350 CORPORATE BOULEVARD, ROBBINSVILLE NJ 08691
Jeffery Cauble officer: Principal Accounting Officer 2711 CITRUS CT., RANCHO CORDOVA CA 95742
Vivian H Liu director
Boyalife Investment Inc. 10 percent owner 2453 S. ARCHER AVE., STE. B, CHICAGO IL 60616
Mark Bagnall director 3876 BAY CENTER PLACE, HAYWARD CA 94545

ThermoGenesis Holdings (ThermoGenesis Holdings) Headlines