What is Tandy Leather Factory Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Tandy Leather Factory Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Tandy Leather Factory (Tandy Leather Factory) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
1900 Southeast Loop 820, Fort Worth, TX, USA, 76140
Tandy Leather Factory Inc is a specialty retailers of leather and leathercraft-related items. Its primary line of business is the sale of leather, leather crafts, and related supplies. Its broad line of leather and related products includes leather, leatherworking tools, leather dyes and finishes, and do-it-yourself kits. Its products include Leather, tools, Hardware, Supplies, Kits, Books and Patterns, and Gift cards. Geographically the company operates within United States, Canada and others and generates the highest revenue from the United States.
Executives
| Jcp Investment Management, Llc |
10 percent owner |
1177 WEST LOOP SOUTH, SUITE 1320, HOUSTON TX 77027 |
| Jcp Investment Partnership, Lp |
10 percent owner, other: See Footnote 1 |
1177 WEST LOOP SOUTH, SUITE 1320, HOUSTON TX 77027 |
| Jcp Investment Partners, Lp |
10 percent owner, other: See Footnote 1 |
1177 WEST LOOP SOUTH, SUITE 1320, HOUSTON TX 77027 |
| Jcp Investment Holdings, Llc |
10 percent owner, other: See Footnote 1 |
1177 WEST LOOP SOUTH, SUITE 1320, HOUSTON TX 77027 |
| Janet A Carr |
director, officer: CEO |
116 S PORTLAND AVENUE, BROOKLYN NY 11217 |
| Jefferson Gramm |
10 percent owner |
C/O BANDERA PARTNERS LLC, 50 BROAD STREET, SUITE 1820, NEW YORK NY 10004 |
| Shannon L Greene |
director, officer: CFO/TREASURER |
3800 FALCON LAKE DRIVE, ARLINGTON TX 76016 |
| Mark J Angus |
officer: SR VICE PRESIDENT |
1900 SE LOOP 820, FORTH WORTH TX 76140 |
| James C Pappas |
director |
1177 WEST LOOP SOUTH, SUITE 1320, HOUSTON TX 77027 |
| T Field Lange |
director |
6300 RIDGLEA PLACE, #500, FORT WORTH TX 76116 |
| Victoria Marie Cantrell |
director |
2 BERRY LANE, RANDOLPH NJ 07869 |
| Sejal Vinu Patel |
director |
400 PARK AVENUE, 21ST FL, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Beshore Brent Cornell |
director |
315 N TENTH ST, COLUMBIA MO 65201 |
| Sharon M Leite |
director |
100 PIER 1 PLACE, FT. WORTH TX 76102 |
| Joseph R Mannes |
director |
4016 MCFARLIN BLVD, DALLAS TX 75205 |
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