Tilray Brands (Tilray Brands) Predictability Rank

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What is Tilray Brands Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Tilray Brands Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Tilray Brands (Tilray Brands) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Drug Manufacturers » Tilray Brands Inc (NAS:TLRY) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

2HQ:Germany 2HQ:Germany 2HQ:Germany 2HQ:Germany TLRY:Canada TLRY:Austria

Address

265 Talbot Street West, Leamington, ON, CAN, N8H 5L4

Website

https://www.tilray.com

Tilray is a Canadian producer that cultivates and sells medical and recreational cannabis. In 2021, legacy Aphria acquired legacy Tilray in a reverse merger and renamed itself Tilray. The bulk of its sales are in Canada and in the international medical cannabis export market. U.S. exposure consists of CBD products and alcohol.

Executives

Denise M Faltischek	officer: Chief Strategy Officer	C/O THE HAIN CELESTIAL GROUP, INC., 1111 MARCUS AVENUE, LAKE SUCCESS NY 11042
Mitchell Gendel	officer: Global General Counsel	EMERALD HOLDING, INC., 100 BROADWAY, 14TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10005
Irwin D Simon	director, officer: President & CEO	C/O THE HAIN CELESTIAL GROUP INC., 1111 MARCUS AVENUE, LAKE SUCCESS NY 11042
Carl A Merton	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O TILRAY, INC., 745 FIFTH AVENUE, SUITE 1602, NEW YORK NY 10151
Brendan Kennedy	director	1920 EASTLAKE AVENUE E., SEATTLE WA 98105
James R. Meiers	officer: Head of Canada	C/O TILRAY, INC., 655 MADISON AVENUE, 19TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10065
David G. Hopkinson	director	C/O TILRAY, INC., 655 MADISON AVENUE, 19TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10065
Thomas P. Looney	director	C/O TILRAY, INC., 655 MADISON AVENUE, 19TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10065
Johann Michael Herhalt	director	C/O TILRAY, INC., 655 MADISON AVENUE, 19TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10065
Jodi L. Butts	director	C/O TILRAY, INC., 655 MADISON AVENUE, 19TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10065
David F Clanachan	director	TIM HORTONS INC., 874 SINCLAIR ROAD, OAKVILLE A6 L6K 2Y1
Renah Persofsky	director	55 PRINCE ARTHUR AVENUE, #604, TORONTO A6 M5R 1B3
Jon Edward Levin	officer: Chief Operating Officer	2701 EASTLAKE AVE E, 3RD FLOOR, SEATTLE WA 98102
Michael C. Kruteck	officer: Chief Financial Officer	2701 EASTLAKE AVE E, 3RD FLOOR, SEATTLE WA 98102
Rebekah Dopp	director	444 LENOX AVENUE, SOUTH ORANGE NJ 07079