What is Trilogy Metals Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Trilogy Metals Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Trilogy Metals (Trilogy Metals) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
609 Granville Street, Suite 1150, Vancouver, BC, CAN, V7Y 1G5
Trilogy Metals Inc is an exploration stage company engaged in mineral exploration. The company focuses on exploring and developing its mineral resource properties, which include the Upper Kobuk Mineral Projects (UKMP or UKMP Projects), in the Ambler mining district located in Alaska, the United States. Its properties have the Arctic copper-zinc- lead-gold-silver project and other mineralized targets within a volcanogenic massive sulfide belt, and it also has a bornite carbonate-hosted copper project.
Executives
| Elaine Sanders |
officer: VP & CFO |
C/O TRILOGY METALS, 1950 - 777 DUNSMUIR STREET, VANCOUVER A1 V7Y 1K4 |
| Diana J Walters |
director |
5430 LBJ FREEWAY, SUITE 1800, DALLAS TX 75240 |
| William Beckwith Hayden |
director |
C/O TRILOGY METALS INC., SUITE 1950, 777 DUNSMUIR STREET, VANCOUVER A1 V7Y 1K4 |
| Tony Giardini |
director, officer: President and CEO |
C/O TRILOGY METALS, 1950 - 777 DUNSMUIR STREET, VANCOUVER A1 V7Y 1K4 |
| Hensley William L. Iggiagruk |
director |
C/O TRILOGY METALS INC., SUITE 1150, 609 GRANVILLE STREET, VANCOUVER A1 V7Y 1G5 |
| James Gowans |
director |
C/O TRILOGY METALS INC., SUITE 1150, 609 GRANVILLE STREET, VANCOUVER A1 V7Y 1G5 |
| Gregory A. Lang |
director |
C/O TRILOGY METALS INC., 1950 - 777 DUNSMUIR STREET, VANCOUVER A1 V7Y 1K4 |
| Kalidas V Madhavpeddi |
other: Former Director |
511 ARROYO SQ, SOUTH PASADENA CA 91030 |
| South32 Ltd |
10 percent owner |
LEVEL 35 108 ST GEORGES TERRACE, PERTH WA C3 6000 |
| Electrum Strategic Opportunities Fund L.p. |
10 percent owner, other: Possible Member of 10% Group |
C/O THE ELECTRUM GROUP LLC, 700 MADISON AVENUE, 5TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10065 |
| Janice Stairs |
director |
C/O TRILOGY METALS, 1950 - 777 DUNSMUIR STREET, VANCOUVER A1 V7Y 1K4 |
| Paulson & Co. Inc. |
10 percent owner |
1133 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 33RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036 |
| South32 International Investment Holdings Proprietary Ltd |
10 percent owner |
LEVEL 35, 108 ST GEORGES TERRACE, PERTH C3 WA 6000 |
| Nieuwenhuyse Rick Van |
director, officer: President & CEO |
C/O TRILOGY METALS, 1950 - 777 DUNSMUIR STREET, VANCOUVER A1 V7Y 1K4 |
| Esof Gp Ltd. |
10 percent owner, other: Possible Member of 10% Group |
C/O THE ELECTRUM GROUP LLC, 700 MADISON AVENUE, 5TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10065 |
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