TPG (TPG) Predictability Rank

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What is TPG Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

TPG Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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TPG (TPG) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » TPG Inc (NAS:TPG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

B81:Germany B81:Germany

Address

301 Commerce Street, Suite 3300, Fort Worth, TX, USA, 76102

Website

https://www.tpg.com

TPG Inc is an alternative asset firm. It invests across five multi-product platforms namely Capital, Growth, Impact, Real Estate, and Market Solutions. TPG aims to build dynamic products and options for its clients while also instituting discipline and operational excellence across the investment and performance of its portfolio.

Executives

Gunther Bright	director	C/O WARBURG PINCUS CAPITAL CORPORATION I, 450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Anilu Vazquez-ubarri	director, officer: Chief Human Resources Officer	C/O UPWORK INC., 2625 AUGUSTINE DRIVE, SUITE 601, SANTA CLARA CA 95054
Tpg Group Holdings (sbs) Advisors, Llc	10 percent owner	301 COMMERCE STREET, SUITE 3300, FORT WORTH TX 76102
Tpg Group Holdings (sbs), L.p.	10 percent owner	301 COMMERCE STREET, SUITE 3300, FORT WORTH TX 76102
Tpg Partner Holdings, L.p.	10 percent owner	301 COMMERCE STREET, SUITE 3300, FORT WORTH TX 76102
Ganendran Sarvananthan	director	301 COMMERCE STREET, SUITE 3300, FORT WORTH TX 76102
Bradford Berenson	officer: General Counsel	301 COMMERCE STREET, SUITE 3300, FORT WORTH TX 76102
Ken N. Murphy	officer: Chief Operating Officer	301 COMMERCE STREET, SUITE 3300, FORT WORTH TX 76102
Jack Weingart	director, officer: Chief Financial Officer	301 COMMERCE STREET, SUITE 3300, FORT WORTH TX 76102
Maya Chorengel	director	301 COMMERCE STREET, SUITE 3300, FORT WORTH TX 76102
Joann Harris	officer: Chief Compliance Officer	301 COMMERCE STREET, SUITE 3300, FORT WORTH TX 76102
David Bonderman	director, 10 percent owner	301 COMMERCE STREET, SUITE 3300, FORT WORTH TX 76102
Tpg Gp A, Llc	10 percent owner	301 COMMERCE STREET, SUITE 3300, FORT WORTH TX 76102
David Trujillo	director	1455 MARKET STREET, 4TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Martin Davidson	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O TPG PACE ENERGY HOLDINGS CORP., 301 COMMERCE STREET, SUITE 3300, FORT WORTH TX 76102