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TPG RE Finance Trust (TPG RE Finance Trust) Predictability Rank


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What is TPG RE Finance Trust Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

TPG RE Finance Trust Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

TPG RE Finance Trust Predictability Rank Related Terms

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TPG RE Finance Trust (TPG RE Finance Trust) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » TPG RE Finance Trust Inc (NYSE:TRTX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
ACRE DX ORC IVR REFI NREF ARR GPMT AOMR NYMT NLY STWD AGNC RITM BXMT ABR RC CMTG ARI LADR
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
888 Seventh Avenue, 35th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10106
Website
https://www.tpgrefinance.com
TPG RE Finance Trust Inc is a commercial real estate finance company. It originates, acquires and manages commercial mortgage loans and other commercial real estate-related debt instruments consisting of first mortgage loans and senior participation interests in first mortgage loans secured by institutional-quality properties in primary and select secondary markets in the United States. The company's objective is to provide attractive risk-adjusted returns to its stockholders over time through cash distributions and capital appreciation. It focuses on directly originating and selectively acquiring floating rate first mortgage loans that are secured by high quality commercial real estate properties undergoing some form of transition and value creation.
Executives
Robert Foley officer: CFO & Chief Risk Officer 888 SEVENTH AVENUE, 35TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10106
Deborah J. Ginsberg officer: Vice President & Secretary 888 SEVENTH AVENUE, 35TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10106
Julie Hong Clayton director C/O TPG PACE TECH OPPORTUNITIES CORP., 301 COMMERCE STREET, SUITE 3300, FORT WORTH TX 76102
Doug Bouquard director, officer: Chief Executive Officer 888 SEVENTH AVENUE, 35TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10106
Brandon C Fox officer: Chief Accounting Officer 888 SEVENTH AVENUE, 35TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10106
China Investment Corp 10 percent owner NEW POLY PLAZA, NO. 1 CHAOYANGMEN BEIDAJIE, DONGCHENG, BEIJING F4 100010
Jon Winkelried 10 percent owner C/O GOLDMAN, SACHS & CO., 85 BROAD STREET, NEW YORK NY 10004
Tpg Gp A, Llc 10 percent owner 301 COMMERCE STREET, SUITE 3300, FORT WORTH TX 76102
Tpg Group Holdings (sbs) Advisors, Inc. 10 percent owner C/O TPG GLOBAL, LLC, 301 COMMERCE STREET, SUITE 3300, FORT WORTH TX 76102
Todd Schuster director C/O TPG RE FINANCE TRUST, INC., 888 SEVENTH AVENUE, 35TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10106
Starwood Xi Management Gp, L.l.c. 10 percent owner 1601 WASHINGTON AVENUE, SUITE 800, MIAMI BEACH FL 33139
Pe Holder, L.l.cc 10 percent owner 591 WEST PUTNAM AVENUE, GREENWICH CT 06830
Bss Scg Gp Holdings, Llc 10 percent owner 1601 WASHINGTON AVENUE, SUITE 800, MIAMI BEACH FL 33139
Starwood Capital Group Holdings Gp, L.l.c. 10 percent owner 1601 WASHINGTON AVENUE, SUITE 800, MIAMI BEACH FL 33139
Scgg Ii Gp, L.l.c. 10 percent owner 1601 WASHINGTON AVENUE, SUITE 800, MIAMI BEACH FL 33139