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Veresen (TSX:VSN.PR.A.PFD) Predictability Rank


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What is Veresen Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Veresen Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Veresen Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Veresen (TSX:VSN.PR.A.PFD) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
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Address
Veresen Inc is an energy infrastructure company based in Calgary, Alberta, Canada. It owns and operates energy infrastructure assets across North America. The Company operates in three business segments, Pipelines, Midstream, and Power. The Company's Pipelines segment owns a 1,330-kilometre pipeline system that transports purity ethane from various Alberta ethane extraction plants to Alberta's major petrochemical complexes located near Joffre and Fort Saskatchewan, Alberta; and also owns a 3,000-kilometre natural gas pipeline comprised of a mainline and various connecting lateral pipelines. This pipeline extends from northeastern B.C. to points near Chicago, Illinois. It's Midstream Business segment is comprised of two natural gas processing plants with combined functional capacity of 516 mmcf/d, as well as approximately 40,000 horsepower of compression and 370 km of gas gathering lines and is located in the Cutbank Ridge region of Alberta and British Columbia. The Hythe plant processes both sour and sweet natural gas, while the Steeprock plant is a sour gas processing facility. While, its Power Business segment operates, a Gas-Fired Generation facility consisting of an 86-MW cogeneration facility located in Windsor, Ontario; 17-MW cogeneration facility located in London, Ontario; 49-MW cogeneration facility located in Ripon, California; 44-MW cogeneration facility located in Pomona, California; and 70-MW combined cycle power cogeneration facility located in Brush, Colorado; an district energy system that produces and distributes steam and chilled water fueled primarily by natural gas, located in London, Ontario; and a district energy system that produces and distributes steam, hot water and electricity fueled primarily by biomass and waste fuel, located in Charlottetown, P.E.I.; a Run-of-River Hydro facility that produces a 33-MW run-of-river hydroelectric power located on the Black River near Watertown, New York; an 11-MW run-of-river power facility located 30 km north of Vancouver, B.C.; two 5-MW waste-heat power generation facilities located at Spectra pipeline's 150 Mile House and Savona, B.C. compressor stations; and a 33-MW wind project under construction in the County of Huron, Ontario; and also operates two wind power facilities, 9-MW and 11-MW, respectively, near Grand Valley, Ontario.

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