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TeleCommunication Systems (TeleCommunication Systems) Predictability Rank


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What is TeleCommunication Systems Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


TeleCommunication Systems Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

TeleCommunication Systems Predictability Rank Related Terms

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TeleCommunication Systems (TeleCommunication Systems) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
TeleCommunication Systems Inc is a Maryland corporation, founded in 1987. The Company develops and delivers wireless communication technology, the development of which has led to ownership of 349 patents and nearly 400 patent applications. It delivers cellular network computing services that include public safety solutions for 9-1-1 call delivery, precision location platforms, and applications that include navigation, locator applications and text messaging, as well as secure wireless communications systems and professional services, including cybersecurity training and technology for defense and other government customers. Customers use its "mobile cloud" software functionality through connections to and from network operations centers, paying the Company monthly fees based on the number of subscribers, cell sites, call center circuits, or other metrics. The Company does business with the U.S. federal government as a prime contractor under major technology contract vehicles, as well as state, local and foreign government entities. The Company's segments include Government, and Commercial. Through the Government Segment, it provides professional services including field support of deployable wireless systems and cybersecurity training to the U.S. Department of Defense and other government and foreign customers. It owns and operates secure satellite teleport facilities, resell access to satellite airtime (known as space segment), and design, furnish, install and operate wireless communication systems and components, including its SwiftLink deployable communication systems which integrate high speed, satellite and internet protocol technology with secure, federal government-approved cryptologic devices. Through the Commercial segment, it enables 9-1-1 call routing via cellular, Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) and next generation technology. Other hosted and managed services include cellular carrier infrastructure for text messaging and location-based platforms and applications, including turn-by-turn navigation. Commercial segment customers include wireless carrier network operators, Voice over Internet Protocol service providers, wireless device manufacturers, automotive industry suppliers, and state and local governments. SwiftLink, Xypoint, AtlasBook, Gokivo, Connections that Matter, Designed for Mobility, Secure the Edge, Art of Exploitation, and Enabling Convergent Technologies are registered trademarks or service marks of the Company. The Company sells products and services through direct sales force and through indirect channels. The Company is subject to procurement and other related laws and regulations which carry significant penalties for non-compliance.
Executives
Bell Don Carlos Iii director 3713 SOUTHWESTERN BLVD, DALLAS TX 75225
Michael P Madon director 7732 BRIDLE PATH LN, MCLEAN VA 22102
Riverview Group Llc 10 percent owner 399 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Israel A Englander other: May be deemed as group member. C/O MILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC, 399 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Millennium Management Llc other: May be deemed as group member. 399 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Integrated Holding Group, L.p. other: May be deemed as group member. C/O MILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC, 666 FIFTH AVENUE, 8TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10103-0899