Twin Disc (Twin Disc) Predictability Rank

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What is Twin Disc Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Twin Disc Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Twin Disc (Twin Disc) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » Twin Disc Inc (NAS:TWIN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

TWN:Germany

Address

222 East Erie Street, Suite 400, Milwaukee, WI, USA, 53202

Website

https://www.twindisc.com

Twin Disc Inc is a United States-based firm engaged in the manufacture and sale of marine and heavy-duty off-highway power transmission equipment. The company operates its business through two reportable segments: Manufacturing and Distribution. Its products portfolio includes marine transmissions, surface drives, propellers, and boat management systems as well as power-shift transmissions, hydraulic torque converters, power take-offs, industrial clutches, and control systems.

Executives

Kevin M. Olsen	director	C/O DORMAN PRODUCTS, INC., 3400 EAST WALNUT STREET, COLMAR PA 18915
Juliann Larimer	director	C/O ZEBRA TECHNOLOGIES CORPORATION, 333 CORPORATE WOODS PARKWAY, VERNON HILLS IL 60061
Michael Doar	director	ONE TECHNOLOGY WAY, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46268
David B Rayburn	director
Malcolm F Moore	director	143 WATER STREET, 143 WATER STREET, WEST BEND WI 53095
Christopher Daniel Bridleman	officer: VP Global Operations	1328 RACINE STREET, RACINE WI 53403
Denise Wilcox	officer: VP-HUMAN RESOURCES	1328 RACINE STREET, RACINE WI 53403
Jeffrey Scott Knutson	officer: Corporate Controller	1328 RACINE STREET, RACINE WI 53403
John H Batten	officer: VP-GM - Marine	1328 RACINE ST., RACINE WI 53403
David R Zimmer	director	1255 INDIAN MOUND WEST, BLOOMFIELD MI 48301
Ggcp, Inc.	10 percent owner	189 MASON STREET, GREENWICH CT 06830
Gamco Investors, Inc. Et Al	10 percent owner	191 MASON STREET, GREENWICH CT 06830
Mario J Gabelli	10 percent owner	191 MASON STREET, GREENWICH CT 06830
Associated Capital Group, Inc.	10 percent owner	191 MASON STREET, GREENWICH CT 06830
Janet Plaut Giesselman	director	25435 HARVARD RD., BEACHWOOD OH 44122