Uber Technologies (Uber Technologies) Predictability Rank

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What is Uber Technologies Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Uber Technologies Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Uber Technologies (Uber Technologies) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Uber Technologies Inc (NYSE:UBER) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

UBER:Mexico 1UBER:Italy UT8d:UK 0A1U:UK UT80:Germany UT8:Germany UT8:Germany UT8:Germany UBER:Canada U1BE34:Brazil UBER:Austria

Address

1515 3rd Street, San Francisco, CA, USA, 94158

Website

https://www.uber.com

Uber Technologies is a technology provider that matches riders with drivers, hungry people with restaurants and food delivery service providers, and shippers with carriers. The firm's on-demand technology platform could eventually be used for additional products and services, such as autonomous vehicles, delivery via drones, and Uber Elevate, which, as the firm refers to it, provides "aerial ride-sharing." Uber Technologies is headquartered in San Francisco and operates in over 63 countries with over 131 million users that order rides or food at least once a month. Approximately 44% of its gross revenue comes from ridesharing and 34% from food delivery.

Executives

Jill Hazelbaker	officer: See Remarks	1455 MARKET STREET 4TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Dara Khosrowshahi	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O INTERACTIVE CORP, 152 WEST 57TH ST, NEW YORK NY 10019
Tony West	officer: See Remarks	1455 MARKET STREET, 4TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Nelson Chai	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O CIT GROUP, 1 CIT DRIVE, #3251-9, LIVINGSTON NJ 07039
Yasir Al-rumayyan	director	3884 PRINCE TURKI IBN ABDUL AZIZ, AL-AWAL ROAD, RIYADH T0 11452
Alexander R Wynaendts	director	388 GREENWICH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10013
Sb Cayman 2 Ltd.	10 percent owner	C/O WALKERS CORPORATE LIMITED, CAYMAN CORPORATE CTR, 27 HOSPITAL ROAD, GEORGE TOWN E9 KY1-9008
Revathi Advaithi	director	EATON HOUSE, 30 PEMBROKE ROAD, DUBLIN 4 L2 -
Robert Eckert	director	MATTEL, INC., 333 CONTINENTAL BLVD, M1-1518, EL SEGUNDO CA 90245
Garrett Camp	director, 10 percent owner	1455 MARKET STREET, 4TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Amanda Ginsberg	director	MATCH GROUP, INC., 8750 N. CENTRAL EXPRESSWAY, SUITE 1400, DALLAS TX 75231
Thuan Pham	officer: Chief Technology Officer	1455 MARKET STREET 4TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Kalanick Travis Cordell	director, 10 percent owner	P.O. BOX 10195, PALO ALTO CA 94303
Manik Gupta	officer: Chief Product Officer	1999 SCOTT LN, LOS ALTOS CA 94024
Glen Ceremony	officer: See Remarks	800 WEST EL CAMINO REAL, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94040