What is UFP Technologies Predictability Rank?
2 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
UFP Technologies Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
UFP Technologies (UFP Technologies) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
100 Hale Street, Newburyport, MA, USA, 01950-3504
UFP Technologies Inc is a designer and custom manufacturer of components, subassemblies, products and packaging utilizing highly specialized foams, films, and plastics primarily for the medical market. The company manufactures its products by converting raw materials using laminating, molding, radio frequency and impulse welding and fabricating manufacturing techniques. It is an important link in the medical device supply chain and a valued outsource partner to many of the top medical device manufacturers in the world. The company's single-use and single-patient devices and components are used in a wide range of medical devices, disposable wound care products, infection prevention, minimally invasive surgery, wearables, orthopedic soft goods, and orthopedic implant packaging.
Executives
| R Jeffrey Bailly |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: President and CEO |
100 HALE STREET, NEWBURYPORT MA 01950 |
| Mitchell Rock |
officer: Vice President |
C/O UFP TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 172 EAST MAIN STREET, GEORGETOWN MA 01833 |
| Jason Holt |
officer: Vice President |
100 HALE STREET, NEWBURYPORT MA 01950 |
| Symeria Hudson |
director |
100 HALE STREET, NEWBURYPORT MA 01950 |
| Joseph Hassett |
director |
ONE TECHNOLOGY WAY, NORWOOD MA 02062 |
| Daniel C Croteau |
director |
C/O LYNCH, BREWER, HOFFMAN & FINK, LLP, 75 FEDERAL STREET, 7TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02110 |
| Cynthia L Feldmann |
director |
17 WINTHROP ROAD, WAYLAND MA 01778 |
| Christopher P. Litterio |
officer: Senior Vice President |
C/O UFP TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 100 HALE STREET, NEWBURYPORT MA 02143 |
| Ronald J Lataille |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
|
| Thomas Oberdorf |
director |
C/O GETTY IMAGES, INC., 601 N 34TH ST, SEATTLE WA 98103 |
| Marc D Kozin |
director |
|
| Steve Cardin |
officer: Vice President |
100 HALE STREET, NEWBURYPORT MA 01950 |
| Daniel J Shaw |
officer: Vice President |
|
| W David Smith |
officer: Vice President |
172 EAST MAIN STREET, GEORGETOWN MA 01833 |
| Pierce Robert W Jr |
director |
C/O UFP TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 172 EAST MAIN STREET, GEORGETOWN MA 01833 |
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