Urban One (Urban One) Predictability Rank

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What is Urban One Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Urban One Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Urban One (Urban One) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Media - Diversified » Urban One Inc (NAS:UONE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

UONEK:USA UA1:Germany

Address

1010 Wayne Avenue, 14th Floor, Silver Spring, MD, USA, 20910

Website

https://www.urban1.com

Urban One Inc is an urban oriented, multi-media company. Its business is radio broadcasting franchise that is the radio broadcasting operation that targets African-American and urban listeners. It operates through the following segments: Radio Broadcasting, Reach Media, Digital, and Cable Television. The Radio Broadcasting segment includes all the broadcasting related operations. The Reach Media segment consists of the Tom Joyner Morning Show and its related activities. The Digital segment focuses on its online business, including the operations of Interactive One. The Cable Television segment deals with TV One's operations.

Executives

Kristopher Simpson	officer: SVP & General Counsel	1010 WAYNE AVENUE, FLOOR 14, SILVER SPRING MD 20910
Mitchell B Doyle Jr	director
Eric Semler	10 percent owner	4625 FIELDSTON ROAD, BRONX NY 10471
Tcs Capital Advisors, Llc	10 percent owner	142 WEST 57TH STREET, 11TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Tcs Capital Management Llc	10 percent owner	142 WEST 57TH STREET, 11TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
D Geoffrey Armstrong	director	5900 PRINCESS GARDEN PARKWAY, 7TH FL, LANHAM MD 20706
Terry L Jones	director	C/O CYBER DIGITAL INC, 400 OSER AVENUE, HAUPPAUGE NY 11788
Brigade Leveraged Capital Structures Fund Ltd.	10 percent owner	ONE NEXUS WAY, CAMANA BAY, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-9005
David M Kantor	officer: CEO, Radio Division	1010 WAYNE AVENUE, FLOOR 14, SILVER SPRING MD 20910
Catherine L Hughes	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairperson and Secretary	5900 PRINCESS GARDEN PARKWAY 8TH FL, LANHAM MD 20706
Brigade Capital Management, Lp	10 percent owner	399 PARK AVENUE, 16TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Morgan Donald E Iii	10 percent owner	C/O BRIGADE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC, 717 FIFTH AVENUE, SUITE 1301, NEW YORK NY 10022
Brigade Capital Management Gp, Llc	10 percent owner	399 PARK AVENUE, 16TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Karen Wishart	officer: EVP	1010 WAYNE AVENUE, 14TH FLOOR, SILVER SPRING MD 20910
Christopher J. Wegmann	officer: President, Radio Division	1010 WAYNE AVENUE, 14TH FLOOR, SILVER SPRING MD 20910