Spok Holdings (Spok Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is Spok Holdings Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Spok Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Spok Holdings (Spok Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Healthcare Providers & Services » Spok Holdings Inc (NAS:SPOK) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

FQV:Germany

Address

5911 Kingstown Village Parkway, 6th Floor, Alexandria, VA, USA, 22315

Website

https://www.spok.com

Spok Holdings Inc is a provider of healthcare communications. It reports three market segments namely Healthcare, Government, and Large enterprise. The company provides paging services and software solutions in the United States and abroad.

Executives

Vincent D Kelly	director, officer: President & CEO	C/O RENTON MEDIA INC, 1300 EAST NINTH ST, CLEVELAND OH 44114
Sharon Woods-keisling	officer: Corporate Secretary, Treasurer	6677 RICHMOND HIGHWAY, ALEXANDRIA VA 22306
Michael W Wallace	officer: Chief Financial Officer	SAWGRASS CORPORATE INDUSTRIAL PARK, 14000 NW 4TH ST, SUNRISE FL 33325
Calvin Rice	officer: Controller	C/O SPOK HOLDINGS, INC., 6850 VERSAR CTR STE 420, SPRINGFIELD VA 22151
Todd J Stein	director	C/O SPOK HOLDINGS, INC., 6850 VERSAR CTR STE 420, SPRINGFIELD VA 22151
Barbara Peterson Byrne	director	C/O SPOK HOLDINGS, INC., 6850 VERSAR CTR STE 420, SPRINGFIELD VA 22315
Randy Hyun	director	C/O SPOK HOLDINGS, INC., 5911 KINGSTOWNE VILLAGE PARKWAY 6TH FLR, ALEXANDRIA VA 22315
Matthew Oristano	director	C/O ARCH WIRELESS INC, 1800 WEST PARK DR. #250, WESTBOROUGH MA 01581
Brian Oreilly	director	C/O METROCALL, 6677 RICHMOND HWY, ALEXANDRIA VA 22306
Christine Cournoyer	director	150 SHAW ROAD, CHESTNUT MA 02467
Brett A Shockley	director	7125 NORTHLAND TERRACE, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55428
Royce Yudkoff	director	C/O METROCALL, 6677 RICHMOND HWY, ALEXANDRIA VA 22306
Stacia Hylton	director	6850 VERSAR CENTER STE 420, SPRINGFIELD VA 22151
Tom Saine	officer: Chief Technology Officer	6677 RICHMOND HIGHWAY, ALEXANDIRA VA 22306
Ted Peterman	officer: Controller	C/O SPōK HOLDINGS, INC., 6850 VERSAR CTR STE 420, SPRINGFIELD VA 22151