VBI Vaccines (VBI Vaccines) Predictability Rank

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What is VBI Vaccines Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

VBI Vaccines Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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VBI Vaccines (VBI Vaccines) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » VBI Vaccines Inc (NAS:VBIV) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

LO9A:Germany

Address

160 Second Street, Floor 3, Cambridge, MA, USA, 02142

Website

https://www.vbivaccines.com

VBI Vaccines Inc is a US-based commercial-stage, the biopharmaceutical company which is engaged in developing next-generation vaccines to address unmet needs in infectious disease and immuno-oncology. The company manufactures Sci-B-Vac product which is a hepatitis B (HBV) vaccine for adults, children, and newborns. Its products include Virus-Like Particle which is vaccine platform which allows for the design of enveloped virus-like particle vaccines that closely mimic the target viruses. The company operates through the single segment being Developing vaccines to address unmet needs in infectious disease and immuno-oncology.

Executives

Steven Gillis	director	8755 W. HIGGINS ROAD, SUITE 1025, CHICAGO IL 60631
Vaughn B Himes	director	C/O SEATTLE GENETICS, INC., 21823 30TH DRIVE SE, BOTHELL WA 98021
Perceptive Life Sciences Master Fund Ltd	10 percent owner	C/O PERCEPTIVE ADVISORS LLC, 51 ASTOR PLACE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
John Robert Dillman	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	C/O VBI VACCINES INC., 160 SECOND STREET, FLOOR 3, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Nell Beattie	officer: Director, Corp Development/IR	222 THIRD STREET, SUITE 2241, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Linda Bain	director	C/O BLUEBIRD BIO, INC., 840 MEMORIAL DRIVE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Damian Braga	director	222 THIRD STREET, SUITE 2241, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Francisco Diaz-mitoma	officer: Chief Medical Officer	222 THIRD STREET, SUITE 2241, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Christopher Mcnulty	officer: CFO and Head of BD	C/O INVIVO THERAPEUTICS HOLDINGS CORP., 1 KENDALL SQUARE, SUITE B14402, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Jeff Baxter	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O VBI VACCINES INC.,, 222 THIRD STREET, STE 2241, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Joanne Cordeiro	director	171 SWANTON STREET, UNIT 48, WINCHESTER MA 01890
Blaine H. Mckee	director	C/O HART, 84 OCTOBER HILL ROAD, SUITE 11, HOLLISTON MA 01746
Tomer Kariv	director	C/O ARNO THERAPEUTICS, INC., 200 ROUTE 31 NORTH, SUITE 104, FLEMINGTON NJ 08822
Joseph Edelman	10 percent owner	C/O PERCEPTIVE ADVISORS LLC, 51 ASTOR PLACE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
Perceptive Advisors Llc	10 percent owner	51 ASTOR PLACE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003