VirnetX Holding (VirnetX Holding) Predictability Rank

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What is VirnetX Holding Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

VirnetX Holding Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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VirnetX Holding (VirnetX Holding) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » VirnetX Holding Corp (NYSE:VHC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

308 Dorla Court, Suite 206, Zephyr Cove, NV, USA, 89448

Website

https://www.virnetx.com

VirnetX Holding Corp is engaged in the business of commercializing a portfolio of patents. It is an Internet security software and technology company with patented technology for secure communications including 4G LTE security. The company GABRIEL connection technology, are designed to facilitate secure communications and provide the security platform required by next-generation Internet-based applications such as instant messaging, voice over Internet protocol, mobile services, streaming video, file transfer, remote desktop, and Machine-to-Machine communications. The firm sells its products in various market segments, including, healthcare, finance, and government.

Executives

Kendall Larsen	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President & CEO	308 DORLA COURT, SUITE 206, ZEPHYR COVE NV 89448
Michael F Angelo	director	308 DORLA COURT, SUITE 206, ZEPHYR COVE NV 89448
Thomas M O'brien	director	308 DORLA COURT, SUITE 206, ZEPHYR COVE NV 89448
Katherine Allanson	officer: Chief Financial Officer	308 DORLA COURT, SUITE 206, ZEPHYR COVE NV 89448
Richard H Nance	officer: Chief Financial Officer	825 BUCKLEY ROAD, SAN LUIS OBISPO CA 93401
Short Robert D Iii	director	308 DORLA COURT, SUITE 206, ZEPHYR COVE NV 89448
Gary Feiner	director	C/O 308 DORLA COURT, SUITE 206, ZEPHYR COVE NV 89448
Scott C Taylor	director	20330 STEVENS CREEK BLVD., CUPERTINO CA 95014
William E Sliney	officer: Chief Financial Officer	5615 SCOTTS VALLEY DR. #110, SCOTTS VALLEY CA 95066
Edmund C Munger	director	5615 SCOTTS VALLEY DRIVE, SUITE 110, SCOTTS VALLEY CA 95066
Virnetx Holding Corp	director, officer: Chief Financial Officer	308 DORLA COURT, SUITE 206, ZEPHYR COVE NV 89448
Wayne T Grau	director	9453 ALCOSTA BLVD, SAN RAHON CA 94583-3920
Glenn P Russell	director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO	5440 FAIRVIEW PL, AGUORA HILLS CA 91301