View (VIEWQ) Predictability Rank

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What is View Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

View Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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View (VIEWQ) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Construction » View Inc (OTCPK:VIEWQ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

195 South Milpitas Boulevard, Milpitas, CA, USA, 95035

Website

https://www.view.com

View Inc is a technology company and the market leader in smart windows. View Smart Windows use artificial intelligence to automatically adjust in response to the sun and increase access to natural light, to improve people's health and experience in buildings, while simultaneously reducing energy consumption to mitigate the effects of climate change. Every View installation also includes a smart building platform that consists of power, network, and communication infrastructure.

Executives

Madrone Capital Partners, Llc	10 percent owner	1149 CHESTNUT STREET, SUITE 200, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Guardians Of New Zealand Superannuation	10 percent owner	PO BOX 106 607, NEW ZEALAND, AUCKLAND Q2 1143
Rao Mulpuri	director, officer: CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER	195 S. MILPITAS BLVD., MILPITAS CA 95035
Scott H Rechler	director	225 BROADHOLLOW RD, C/O RECKSON ASSOCIATES, MELVILLE NY 11747
Amy Reeves	officer: CHIEF ACCOUNTING OFFICER	195 S. MILPITAS BLVD., MILPITAS CA 95035
Julie Larson-green	director	C/O HEALTH CATALYST, INC., 3165 MILLROCK DR., #400, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84121
Lisa Picard	director	195 S. MILPITAS BLVD., MILPITAS CA 95035
Svf Endurance (cayman) Ltd	10 percent owner	C/O WALKERS CORPORATE LIMITED, 27 HOSPITAL ROAD, GEORGE TOWN E9 KY1-9008
William T. Krause	officer: See Remarks	195 S. MILPITAS BLVD., MILPITAS CA 95035
Svf Excaliber (cayman) Ltd	10 percent owner	27 HOSPITAL ROAD, WALKERS CORPORATE LTD., CAYMAN CORPORATE CENTRE, GEORGE TOWN, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY-9008
Nigel Gormly	director	195 S. MILPITAS BLVD., MILPITAS CA 95035
Toby Cosgrove	director	195 S. MILPITAS BLVD., MILPITAS CA 95035
Martin Neumann	officer: See Remarks	195 S. MILPITAS BLVD., MILPITAS CA 95035
Rahul Bammi	officer: CHIEF BUSINESS OFFICER	195 S. MILPITAS BLVD., MILPITAS CA 95035
Nitesh Trikha	officer: See Remarks	195 S. MILPITAS BLVD., MILPITAS CA 95035