VSE (VSEC) Predictability Rank

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What is VSE Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

VSE Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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VSE (VSEC) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Aerospace & Defense » VSE Corp (NAS:VSEC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

VS3:Germany

Address

6348 Walker Lane, Alexandria, VA, USA, 22310

Website

https://www.vsecorp.com

VSE Corp is a diversified aftermarket products and services company providing repair services, parts distribution, logistics, supply chain management and consulting services for land, sea and air transportation assets to commercial and government markets. Its operations include supply chain management solutions, parts supply and distribution, and maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) services for vehicle fleet, aviation, maritime and other customers. It also provide vehicle and equipment refurbishment, logistics, engineering support, data management and healthcare IT solutions, and clean energy consulting services. The company operating segments are Aviation, Fleet and Federal and Defense.

Executives

Edward P Dolanski	director	5158 MOHAWK DRIVE, FRISCO TX 75034
John E Potter	director	9009 FALLS CHAPEL WAY, POTOMAC MD 20854-2387
James F Lafond	director	4401 GULF SHORE BLVD NORTH, UNIT 103, NAPLES FL 34103
Calvin Scott Koonce	director	6229 EXECUTIVE BOULEVARD, ROCKVILLE MD 20852
Bonnie K Wachtel	director	1101 FOURTEENTH STREET NW, SUITE 800, WASHINGTON DC 20005
Ralph E Eberhart	director	909 N. WASHINGTON STREET, ALEXANDRIA VA 22314
Ferguson Iii Mark E	director	1444 CLONCURRY ROAD, NORFOLK VA 23505
Anita D Britt	director	3000 NW 107TH AVENUE, MIAMI FL 33172
Lloyd Emerson Johnson	director	16737 NEW PROVIDENCE LANE, CHARLOTTE NC 28277
Benjamin E. Thomas	officer: President, VSE Aviation, Inc.	3361 ENTERPRISE WAY, MIRAMAR FL 33025
Stephen D. Griffin	officer: Sr. VP and CFO	6348 WALKER LANE, ALEXANDRIA VA 22310
Farinaz S Tehrani	officer: Chief Legal Officer	180 EAST BROAD STREET, COLUMBUS OH 43215
Moore Robert Andrew Iii	officer: President, Federal & Defense	6348 WALKER LANE, ALEXANDRIA VA 22310
John A Cuomo	director, officer: CEO and President	6348 WALKER LANE, ALEXANDRIA VA 22310
Chad Wheeler	officer: President, Wheeler Fleet	384 DRUM AVENUE, SOMERSET PA 15501