Verastem (Verastem) Predictability Rank

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What is Verastem Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Verastem Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Verastem (Verastem) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Verastem Inc (NAS:VSTM) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

2VS:Germany

Address

117 Kendrick Street, Suite 500, Needham, MA, USA, 02494

Website

https://www.verastem.com

Verastem Inc is late-stage development biopharmaceutical company, committed to advancing new medicines for patients battling cancer. Its pipeline is focused on novel anticancer agents that inhibit critical signaling pathways in cancer that promote cancer cell survival and tumor growth, particularly RAF/MEK inhibition and FAK inhibition.

Executives

Robert E. Gagnon	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O BIOGEN IDEC INC., 133 BOSTON POST ROAD, WESTON MA 02493
Daniel Calkins	officer: Vice President of Finance	C/O VERASTEM, INC., 117 KENDRICK STREET, SUITE 500, NEEDHAM MA 02494
Brian M Stuglik	director	C/O VERASTEM, INC., 117, NEEDHAM MA 02494
Dan Paterson	officer: Chief Operating Officer	215 FIRST STREET, SUITE 440, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Karin Anna Tollefson	director	C/O VERASTEM, INC., 117 KENDRICK STREET, SUITE 500, NEEDHAM MA 02494
Anil Kapur	director	275 MADISON AVE, SUITE 702, NEW YORK NY 10016
Bvf I Gp Llc	other: See Explanation of Responses	44 MONTGOMERY ST., 40TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Bvf Gp Holdings Llc	10 percent owner	44 MONTGOMERY ST., 40TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Bvf Ii Gp Llc	other: See Explanation of Responses	44 MONTGOMERY ST., 40TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Bvf Partners Os Ltd.	other: See Explanation of Responses	P.O. BOX 309 UGLAND HOUSE, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1104
Biotechnology Value Trading Fund Os Lp	other: See Explanation of Responses	P.O. BOX 309 UGLAND HOUSE, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1104
Mark N Lampert	10 percent owner	1 SANSOME ST, 30TH FL, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Biotechnology Value Fund Ii Lp	other: See Explanation of Responses	44 MONTGOMERY STREET, 40TH FL, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Bvf Partners L P/il	10 percent owner	44 MONTGOMERY ST., 40TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Bvf Inc/il	10 percent owner	44 MONTGOMERY STREET, 40TH FL, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104