What is Vistagen Therapeutics Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Vistagen Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Vistagen Therapeutics (Vistagen Therapeutics) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
343 Allerton Avenue, South San Francisco, CA, USA, 94080
Vistagen Therapeutics Inc is a biotechnology firm. The company is in its clinical stage and engaged in developing and commercializing product candidates for patients with diseases and disorders involving the central nervous system. The company's pipeline includes six product candidates, including five clinical-stage investigational agents belonging to a new class of drugs known as pherines. The portfolio of the company includes PH94B, a novel neuroactive nasal spray; PH10, an odorless, fast-acting synthetic neurosteroid and AV-101, an oral antagonist of the glycine site of the N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor (NMDAR) which is the Company is developing for the treatment of MDD, suicidal ideation, neuropathic pain, levodopa-induced dyskinesia (LID) and epilepsy.
Executives
| Joshua S. Prince |
officer: Chief Operating Officer |
C/O VISTAGEN THERAPEUTICS, INC., 343 ALLERTON AVE., SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080 |
| Cynthia Lynn Anderson |
officer: CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER |
C/O VISTAGEN THERAPEUTICS, INC., 343 ALLERTON AVE., SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080 |
| Commodore Capital Lp |
10 percent owner |
444 MADISON AVENUE, 35TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Jerry B Gin |
director |
343 ALLERTON AVE, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080 |
| Reid G. Adler |
officer: CHIEF LEGAL OFFICER |
C/O VISTAGEN THERAPEUTICS, INC., 343 ALLERTON AVE., SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94090 |
| Shawn Singh |
director, officer: CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER |
C/O VISTAGEN THERAPEUTICS, INC., 343 ALLERTON AVENUE, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080 |
| Venrock Healthcare Capital Partners Ii, L.p. |
10 percent owner |
7 BRYANT PARK, 23RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10018 |
| Vhcp Management Ii, Llc |
10 percent owner |
7 BRYANT PARK, 23RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10018 |
| Vhcp Management Eg, Llc |
10 percent owner |
3340 HILLVIEW AVENUE, PALO ALTO CA 94304 |
| Venrock Healthcare Capital Partners Eg, L.p. |
10 percent owner |
3340 HILLVIEW AVENUE, PALO ALTO CA 94304 |
| Vhcp Co-investment Holdings Iii, Llc |
10 percent owner |
7 BRYANT PARK, 23RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10018 |
| Bong Y Koh |
10 percent owner |
7 BRYANT PARK, 23RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10018 |
| Vhcp Co-investment Holdings Ii, Llc |
10 percent owner |
7 BRYANT PARK, 23RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10018 |
| Nimish P Shah |
10 percent owner |
7 BRYANT PARK, 23RD FLOOR, NEW YORK CITY NY 10018 |
| Venrock Healthcare Capital Partners Iii, L.p. |
10 percent owner |
530 FIFTH AVENUE, 22ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036 |
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