Weyco Group (Weyco Group) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 1990. Start your Free Trial

What is Weyco Group Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Weyco Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Weyco Group Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Weyco Group's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Weyco Group (Weyco Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Manufacturing - Apparel & Accessories » Weyco Group Inc (NAS:WEYS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

WY1:Germany

Address

333 West Estabrook Boulevard, P.O. Box 1188, Milwaukee, WI, USA, 53201

Website

https://www.weycogroup.com

Weyco Group Inc is a company, engaged in the manufacturing, designing and distribution of footwear. The company designs and markets footwear for men, women, and children. The company organizes its business into two segments; the North American wholesale and the North American retail segment. It markets its apparel, accessories, and footwear under the brand name of Florsheim, Nunn Bush, Stacy Adams, BOGS, Rafters, and Forsake. The company has operational footprints in the United States, Canada, Europe, Asia, and Australia among others. It generates a majority of its revenue from the United States.

Executives

Allison Woss	officer: VP - SUPPLY CHAIN	WEYCO GROUP, INC., 333 W. ESTABROOK BLVD., GLENDALE WI 53212
Damian Walton	officer: President-Florsheim Australia	WEYCO GROUP, INC., 333 W. ESTABROOK BLVD, GLENDALE WI 53212
Judy Anderson	other: VP Finance/Treasurer	333 W. ESTABROOK BLVD., GLENDALE WI 53212
Dustin Combs	officer: VP, PRESIDENT - BOGS & RAFTERS	WEYCO GROUP, INC., 333 W. ESTABROOK BLVD., GLENDALE WI 53212
Kevin Schiff	officer: VP, PRESIDENT - FLORSHEIM	WEYCO GROUP, INC., 333 W. ESTABROOK BLVD., GLENDALE WI 53212
Katherine Destinon	officer: VP, PRESIDENT - NUNN BUSH	WEYCO GROUP, INC., W.333 ESTABROOK BLVD, GLENDALE WI 53212
Brian Flannery	officer: VP, PRESIDENT - STACY ADAMS	333 W. ESTABROOK BOULEVARD, GLENDALE WI 53212
George Sotiros	officer: VP - INFORMATION SYSTEMS	WEYCO GROUP, INC., 333 W. ESTABROOK BLVD., GLENDALE WI 53212
Jeffrey S Douglass	officer: VP, Marketing	WEYCO GROUP, INC. 333 W. ESTABROOK BLVD, GLENDALE WI 53212
Robert D Hanley	officer: Director of Finance	WEYCO GROUP, INC. 333 W. ESTABROOK BLVD, GLENDALE WI 53212
Joshua Wisenthal	officer: President of Weyco Canada	WEYCO GROUP, INC. 333 W. ESTABROOK BLVD, GLENDALE WI 53212
Michael Bernsteen	officer: VP, President - Nunn Bush	WEYCO GROUP, INC., 333 W. ESTABROOK BLVD., GLENDALE WI 53212
Thomas W Florsheim	director, 10 percent owner	333 W. ESTABROOK BOULEVARD, GLENDALE WI 53212
Tina M Chang	director	375 BISHOPS WAY, SUITE 105, BROOKFIELD WI 53005
John Wittkowske	officer: Senior Vice President and CFO	333 W ESTABROOK BLVD, GLENDALE WI 53212