United States Steel (United States Steel) Predictability Rank

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What is United States Steel Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

United States Steel Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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United States Steel (United States Steel) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Steel » United States Steel Corp (NYSE:X) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

X:Mexico 1USX1:Italy USX1:Germany USX1:Germany USX1:Germany USX1:Germany X:Chile USSX34:Brazil X:Argentina

Address

600 Grant Street, Pittsburgh, PA, USA, 15219-2800

Website

https://www.ussteel.com

United States Steel Corp operates primarily in the United States but also has a steelmaking capacity in Slovakia. The company's operating segments include North American Flat-Rolled (Flat-Rolled), Mini Mill, U. S. Steel Europe (USSE), and Tubular Products (Tubular). The Flat-Rolled segment includes U. S. Steel's integrated steel plants and equity investees in North America involved in the production of slabs, strip mill plates, sheets, and tin mill products, as well as all iron ore and coke production facilities in the United States. It primarily serves North American customers in the service center, conversion, transportation, construction, container, and appliance, and electrical markets.

Executives

Daniel R Brown	officer: SVP Adv. Tech. Steelmaking	600 GRANT STREET, SUITE 1844, C/O UNITED STATES STEEL CORPORATION, PITTSBURGH PA 15219
David B Burritt	officer: Exec. VP and CFO	600 GRANT STREET, SUITE 1500, PITTSBURGH PA 15219
Scott D Buckiso	officer: VP Euro Solutions & Pres USSK	600 GRANT STREET, PITTSBURGH PA 15219
Kenneth E Jaycox	officer: SVP & Chief Comm. Officer	600 GRANT STREET, SUITE 6100, PITTSBURGH PA 15219
James E. Bruno	officer: Sr VP, Automotive Solutions	600 GRANT STREET, PITTSBURGH PA 15219
Duane D Holloway	officer: SVP, GC, CCO & Corp. Sec	C/O UNITED STATES STEEL CORPORATION, 600 GRANT STREET, PITTSBURGH PA 15219
Alicia J. Davis	director	21557 TELEGRAPH ROAD, SOUTHFIELD MI 48033
Andrea J. Ayers	director	STANLEY BLACK & DECKER, IN., 1000 STANLEY DRIVE, NEW BRITAIN CT 06053
Richard Fruehauf	officer: Deputy Gen Counsel - Corporate	600 GRANT STREET, PITTSBURGH PA 15219
Jessica Graziano	officer: SVP & Chief Financial Officer	C/O UNITED RENTALS, INC, 100 FIRST STAMFORD PL, STAMFORD CT 06902
Manpreet Grewal	officer: VP, Controller & CAO	600 GRANT STREET, PITTSBURGH PA 15219
Christine S Breves	officer: VP & Supply Chain Officer	600 GRANT STREET, SUITE 6100, PITTSBURGH PA 16059
Terry L Dunlap	director	1000 SIX PPG PLACE, PITTSBURGH PA 15222
Tracy A Atkinson	director	MFS INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, 500 BOYLSTON ST., BOSTON MA 02116
Jeh C. Johnson	director	77 BEALE ST., P.O. BOX 770000, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94177