Cimarex Energy Co (Cimarex Energy Co) Predictability Rank

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What is Cimarex Energy Co Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Cimarex Energy Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Cimarex Energy Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Cimarex Energy Co (Cimarex Energy Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Cimarex Energy Co (NYSE:XEC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1700 Lincoln Street, Suite 3700, Denver, CO, USA, 80203

Website

https://www.cimarex.com

Denver-based Cimarex Energy is an independent exploration and production company with operations throughout the Southern and Central United States, where its focus includes the Permian Basin, Woodford Shale, and Meramec horizon. The firm was created in 2002 when it spun off from Helmerich & Payne and then merged with Key Production. At year-end 2018, Cimarex's proved reserves were 591 million barrels of oil equivalent, with net production of 221 thousand boe per day. Natural gas represented 42% of production and 45% of reserves.

Executives

John Lambuth	officer: SVP-Exploration	C/O CIMAREX ENERGY CO 1700 LINCOLN STREET, SUITE 1800 DENVER CO 80203
Joseph R Albi	director, other: Former Executive VP, COO	C/O CIIRMAREX ENERGY CO 707 17TH ST. #3300 DENVER CO 80202-3404
G Mark Burford	officer: SVP & Chief Financial Officer	1700 LINCOLN STREET SUITE 3700 DENVER CO 80203
Stephen P Bell	officer: Ex VP	C/O CIIRMAREX ENERGY CO, 707 17TH ST. #3300, DENVER CO 80202-3404
Blake A Sirgo	officer: VP-Operations	1700 LINCOLN STREET, SUITE 3700, DENVER CO 80203
Logan Harold R Jr	director
Francis Brian Barron	officer: Sr VP-General Counsel	1099 18TH STREET, SUITE 2300, DENVER CO 80202
Monroe W Robertson	director	C/O CIMAREX ENERGY CO. 1700 LINCOLN STREET, SUITE 1800 DENVER CO 80203
David A Hentschel	director	C/O CIIRMAREX ENERGY CO 707 17TH ST. #3300 DENVER CO 80202-3404
Sullivan Michael J/co	director	C/O CIIRMAREX ENERGY CO, 707 17TH ST. #3300, DENVER CO 80202-3404
Thomas F Mccoy	officer: SVP-Production	1700 LINCOLN STREET SUITE 3700 DENVER CO 80203
Kathleen A Hogenson	director	C/O VERISK ANALYTICS, INC., 545 WASHINGTON BOULEVARD, JERSEY CITY NJ 07310
Paul Eckley	director	1700 LINCOLN STREET, SUITE 3700, DENVER CO 80203
Frances M Vallejo	director	1700 LINCOLN STREET, SUITE 3700, DENVER CO 80203
Hans Helmerich	director	C/O CIIRMAREX ENERGY CO, 707 17TH ST. #3300, DENVER CO 80202-3404