Xencor (Xencor) Predictability Rank

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What is Xencor Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Xencor Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Xencor Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Xencor (Xencor) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Xencor Inc (NAS:XNCR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

XE9:Germany

Address

111 West Lemon Avenue, Monrovia, CA, USA, 91016

Website

http://www.xencor.com

Xencor Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company based in the United States. It focuses on discovering and developing engineered monoclonal antibody and other protein therapeutics to treat severe and life-threatening diseases with unmet medical needs. The company uses its XmAb technology platform to create antibody product candidates such as XmAb5871 and XmAb7195. It also has a few pre-clinical stage candidates in its portfolio such as XmAb14045 and XmAb13676. It earns its revenue from research and development collaborations and licenses of its internally developed drug candidates.

Executives

Bassil I Dahiyat	director, officer: PRESIDENT & CEO	C/O XENCOR, INC., 111 WEST LEMON AVENUE, MONROVIA CA 91016
Barbara Klencke	director	C/O SIERRA ONCOLOGY, INC., 1820 GATEWAY DRIVE, SUITE 110, SAN MATEO CA 94404
Allen Yang	officer: SR. VICE PRESIDENT & CMO	C/O XENCOR INC., 111 WEST LEMON AVENUE, MONROVIA CA 91016
Celia Eckert	officer: VP, GENERAL COUNSEL	C/O XENCOR, INC., 111 WEST LEMON AVENUE, MONROVIA CA 91016
John R Desjarlais	officer: SR. VICE PRESIDENT & CSO	C/O XENCOR, INC., 111 WEST LEMON AVENUE, MONROVIA CA 91016
John J Kuch	officer: SR. VICE PRESIDENT & CFO	C/O XENCOR, INC., 111 WEST LEMON AVENUE, MONROVIA CA 91016
Nancy Valente	director	C/O MYOVANT SCIENCES INC., 2000 SIERRA POINT PARKWAY, 9TH FLOOR, BRISBANE CA 94005
Richard J Ranieri	director	3005 FIRST AVE, SEATTLE WA 98121
Ellen Feigal	director	C/O XENCOR INC., 111 WEST LEMON AVENUE, MONROVIA CA 91016
Yujiro S Hata	director	C/O XENCOR, INC., 111 WEST LEMON AVENUE, MONROVIA CA 91016
Dagmar Rosa-bjorkeson	director	C/O BAXALTA INCORPORATED, 1200 LAKESIDE DRIVE, BANNOCKBURN IL 60015
Alan Bruce Montgomery	director	1111 MAIN STREET, SUITE 660, VANCOUVER WA 98660
Kevin Charles Gorman	director	12790 EL CAMINO REAL, SAN DIEGO CA 92130
Kurt A Gustafson	director	11388 SORRENTO VALLEY ROAD, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Stafford John S Iii	10 percent owner	230 SOUTH LASALLE STREET 400, CHICAGO IL 60604