GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Vehicles & Parts » Mercedes-Benz Group AG (XTER:MBG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Mercedes-Benz Group AG (XTER:MBG) Predictability Rank


View and export this data going back to 1998. Start your Free Trial

What is Mercedes-Benz Group AG Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Mercedes-Benz Group AG Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Mercedes-Benz Group AG Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Mercedes-Benz Group AG's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Mercedes-Benz Group AG (XTER:MBG) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Vehicles & Parts » Mercedes-Benz Group AG (XTER:MBG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
XTER:BMW XTER:VOW3 XTER:PAH3 TSLA TSE:7203 MIL:STLAM SZSE:002594 MIL:RACE TSE:7267 F GM NSE:MARUTI NSE:TATAMOTORS XKRX:005380 XKRX:000270 BOM:532977 LI NSE:M&M SHSE:600104 HKSE:02333
Traded in Other Exchanges
MBGYY:USA MBGAF:USA DAI:Romania MBG:Mexico DAIMLER:Hungary MBGd:UK 0NXX:UK MBG:Austria
Address
Mercedesstrasse 120, Stuttgart, BW, DEU, 70372
Website
https://www.daimler.com
Based in Stuttgart, Germany, Mercedes-Benz Group makes premium and luxury passenger vehicles and commercial vans. Brands include Mercedes-Benz, AMG, and Maybach. Mercedes-Benz Mobility provides the company's dealers and its customers with vehicle financing as well as mobility services in ride hailing, car sharing, and charging. Mercedes owns 9.74% of Aston Martin and 9.55% of Beijing Automotive Group. Through Tenaciou3 Prospect Investment, Li Shufu, chair of Chinese automaker Geely, owns 9.69% of Mercedes-Benz. Other major shareholders include Beijing Automotive Group at 9.98% and Kuwait Investment Authority at 4.9% (6.8% before the sale of a 1.9% stake in March 2023).
Executives
Dr. Frank Weber Supervisory Board
Bader M. Al Saad Supervisory Board
Dr. Martin Brudermüller Supervisory Board
Sari Baldauf Supervisory Board
Ben Van Beurden Supervisory Board
Dr. Bernd Pischetsrieder Supervisory Board
Timotheus Höttges Supervisory Board
Petraea Heynike Supervisory Board
Dr. Manfred Bischoff Supervisory Board
Josef Kaeser Supervisory Board
Dr. Jürgen Hambrecht Supervisory Board