Yext (YEXT) Predictability Rank

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What is Yext Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Yext Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Yext (YEXT) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Yext Inc (NYSE:YEXT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

BASE ATEN RDWR PGY CINT TUYA PSFE IMXI RPAY GB MSFT ORCL ADBE PANW SNPS VMW FTNT CRWD PLTR SPLK

Traded in Other Exchanges

YEXT:Mexico 0YE:Germany 0YE:Germany

Address

61 Ninth Avenue, New York, NY, USA, 10011

Website

https://www.yext.com

Yext Inc provides a knowledge engine platform that lets businesses manage their digital knowledge in the cloud and sync it to approximately 200 services including Apple Maps, Bing, Cortana, Facebook, Google, Google Maps, Instagram, Siri and Yelp. Digital knowledge is the structured information that a business wants to make publicly accessible. The company also makes search intelligent by helping to provide precise, accurate and current answers to location-based queries that are conducted across the web and mobile applications and voice and artificial intelligence, or AI, engines. The company derives majority of its revenues from subscription services.

Executives

Ho Shin	officer: General Counsel	61 NINTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10011
Brian Distelburger	director, officer: President	ONE MADISON AVENUE, FIFTH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10010
Julie Richardson	director	YEXT, INC., 1 MADISON AVENUE, 5TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10010
Evan Skorpen	director	C/O YEXT, INC., 61 NINTH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10011
Faheem Bawa	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O YEXT, INC., 61 NINTH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10011
Marc Ferrentino	officer: President and COO	61 NINTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10011
Darryl Bond	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	ONE MADISON AVENUE, FIFTH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10010
Seth H. Waugh	director	C/O FRANKLIN RESOURCES, INC., ONE FRANKLIN PARKWAY, SAN MATEO CA 94403
Steven Cakebread	officer: Chief Financial Officer	YEXT, INC., ONE MADISON AVE., FIFTH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10010
David Rudnitsky	officer: Chief Revenue Officer	C/O YEXT, INC., 61 NINTH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10011
Howard Lerman	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	ONE MADISON AVENUE, FIFTH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10010
Tamar Yehoshua	director	301 CONGRESS AVE, STE 700, AUSTIN TX 78701
Shane Battier	director	2600 VIRGINIA AVENUE NW, SUITE T23 MANAGEMENT OFFICE, WASHINGTON DC 20037
Hillary B Smith	director	C/O YEXT, INC, 61 NINTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10011
Michael Walrath	director	ONE MADISON AVENUE, FIFTH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10010