Warren Buffett's Market Indicator Breaks 154%

Stock markets continue setting new highs as US removes China as a currency manipulator

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Jan 13, 2020
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On Monday, Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.A, Financial)(BRK.B, Financial) CEO Warren Buffett (Trades, Portfolio)’s favorite market indicator stood at 154.7%, approximately 1.6% higher than the 153.1% reading on Dec. 30, 2019, and 6.2% higher than the previous high of 148.5% set in March 2000.

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Dow and S&P set new records as U.S. removes China as a currency manipulator

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 28,905.90, up 82.13 points from Friday’s close of 28,823.77 on news that the U.S. Treasury has removed China as a currency manipulator.

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CNBC columnist Thomas Franck said that Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin reiterated in a Sunday Fox News interview that Phase 1 of the U.S.–China trade deal is an important step and that Beijing has agreed to purchase over $200 billion in U.S. goods over the next two years.

Markets begin 2020 significantly overvalued

As the stock market continues setting new highs, the market becomes more overvalued. Buffett’s favorite market indicator, which captures the ratio of the Wilshire 5000 full-cap index to the U.S. gross domestic product, eclipsed 154% on Monday.

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Value screens continue identifying opportunities

Despite the significantly overvalued stock market, GuruFocus’ value screens still identify good investing opportunities domestically and internationally. Table 1 reports the value screener record for each of our major value screens.

Screener USA Asia Europe Canada UK/Ireland Oceania Latin America Africa India
Graham Net-Net 117 511 256 37 40 11 7 12 155
Undervalued Predictable 38 89 217 8 49 6 45 2 11
Buffett-Munger 21 101 120 3 29 1 24 4 41
Historical Low PS 48 111 110 1 20 1 23 8 35
Historical Low PB 51 138 150 3 33 1 27 8 58
Peter Lynch Screen 21 49 43 0 10 0 6 3 21
52-week Lows 1260 3974 2290 135 995 66 600 129 700
52-week Highs 3569 3473 7825 309 2267 244 1111 150 667

Table 1

Disclosure: No positions.

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